Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 2 NBA Picks: Must-Win for Memphis

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: May 3, 2022 8:56 AM EDT • 4 min 10 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - MAY 01: Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies goes to the basket against Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Golden State Warriors during Game One of the Western Conference Semifinals of the NBA Playoffs at FedExForum on May 01, 2022 in Memphis, Tennessee. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Justin Ford/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Justin Ford / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Golden State Warriors got the better of the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 and are looking to put the Grizz into submission by sweeping the pair of games in Memphis on Tuesday. Can the Grizzlies bounce back to even the series or will they be forced into an uncomfortable early deficit in the series? Read on for our Warriors-Grizzlies Game 2 picks and predictions.

Ja Morant couldn't play the hero in Game 1 as the Warriors downed the Grizzlies 117-116. Memphis gets a shot at evening up the series tally on Tuesday before things shift out to California for Games 3 and 4. It's a big spot for a Grizzlies team that showed moxie under duress all season. Can they do it again to avoid falling too far behind?

Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday's NBA playoff Game 2 matchup between the Warriors and Grizzlies (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, May 3, 9:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds Analysis

The line for Game 2 opened at Warriors -2 and hasn't budged. About 72% of the cash is on the Grizzlies in this matchup and it's not just an overwhelming view by the public to get it there. Just 59% of the ticket count falls with Memphis, meaning some sharp betting has boosted that side of the equation. Memphis has a 56-32-1 record against the spread this season. Golden State enters Tuesday at 44-40-4 ATS this season.

Like with the point spread, there hasn't been much movement on the total. After opening at 227.5, it’s still there at DraftKings and FanDuel. A whopping 81% of the ticket count rides with the Over, while a lesser total of 63% of the cash does the same. On the season, Memphis games have gone 45-40-4 to the Over, with contests involving Golden State coming in at 40-46-2 on Overs.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Picks

Grizzlies +2 (-110) ?????Over 227.5 (-110) ????Desmond Bane Over 17.5 points (-120) ????

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Predictions

Grizzlies +2 (-110)

The Grizzlies let an opportunity slip away in Game 1 as a pair of missed free throws by Klay Thompson ultimately provided Memphis with a chance to win the game on the final possession. The Grizz put the ball in Ja's hands, but he couldn’t successfully knife through the lane to win the game. In truth, there are likely to be several more games in this series decided on the last possession as these teams are both supremely talented and evenly matched. For the Grizzlies in Game 2, though, a win feels like a necessity to avoid falling into desperation mode for the consecutive road games to follow.

The tight nature of the relationship between these two teams in the regular-season standings played out in Game 1 and I expect it to do so again on Tuesday. Giving the Grizzlies two points at home in what feels like as close to a must-win as you'll find in a Game 2 of a best of seven seems like the direction to lean in this one. Memphis' league-best ATS record during the season includes an impressive 8-3 ATS mark as home underdogs, with seven outright wins in those 11 instances as home dogs for the Grizzlies.

They didn't play poorly in Game 1 and they weren't overmatched. Memphis simply didn't execute enough down the stretch, where close games are won and lost. When Golden State left the door open by failing at the free-throw line, that was the opportunity to seize. But it didn't happen. I don't anticipate the Grizzlies going two games in a row without exercising their killer instinct.

Over 227.5 (-110)

The points flowed in Game 1, with both sides getting into the mid-110s, as is their customary range on the year. The Grizzlies averaged 115.6 points per game this season, second-best in the NBA. But the Warriors, of all teams, are obviously capable of elevating their offensive production to match the flow of what the opposing side is going to bring.

Golden State finished middle of the pack in scoring this season at 111 points per game, relying upon a fourth-ranked scoring defense to assert an effective game plan. But the Warriors are also adaptable, and they won't have much issue adjusting to the game flow enacted by the Grizzlies for Game 2 in Memphis. On average, the Grizzlies enjoyed more possessions per game than any team in the NBA this season. That and their league-best scoring average contributed to their contests leaning Over on totals this season.

Though the Warriors don't desire to play as quickly as the Grizzlies, they will find it necessary to keep up the pace in Game 2 as I anticipate a quality offensive showing for Memphis with its back against the wall. That's going to spell another game total in the 230s for Tuesday night, meaning I'm holding my breath and riding with the public on this Over. I just don't see the offenses faltering to the extent it would take in order for this Over to miss the mark.

Bane Over 17.5 points (-120)

Desmond Bane was a virtual non-factor for the Grizzlies in Game 1 as Golden State limited the Memphis sharpshooter to a 3-for-10 showing from the field and 1-for-5 from three. Considering the significance of the role Bane played in the previous round against the Minnesota Timberwolves, that's an off night for the guard and it simply cannot become a trend in this series.

Against Minnesota, Bane went for 26, 34, 25, and 23 points over the final four games of the series. Since the beginning of March, he's only had one other game where he failed to sink multiple 3-pointers. For the Grizzlies' dynamic offense to operate at its full throttle, Bane has to find a way to rise above the stout defense the Warriors are going to play against him. Given his recent performances leading into a tough Game 1, I believe Bane will adjust back to the mean after getting the first one out of the way against the Dubs.

The 17.5-point mark is about a full point below Bane's season average. I'm buying into the Grizzlies for this game and Bane needs to justify that position. I believe he will by pushing back into the 20-point range for Game 2.

Where to Bet on Warriors-Grizzlies Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Warriors-Grizzlies picks made 5/3/2022 at 1:54 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.