Warriors, Grizzlies to go ‘over’ in Game 3 is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 9, 2015 2:06 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 9, 2015 2:06 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.


After a stunning Game 2 result, look for the team with the best record in the NBA to force the pace Saturday night when those top seeded Golden State Warriors (72-16, 30-13 away) pay a visit to the fifth seeded Memphis Grizzlies (60-29, 34-10 home) for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal from FedExForum in Memphis, TN at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ABC, with the series tied at 1-1.

The posted total at Bet365 is 196 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.

Game 2 Shocker in Oakland
The Warriors finished 67-15 in the regular season including 39-2 at home, and that home mark had improved to 42-2 straight up during the playoffs before the Grizzlies pulled the 97-90 stunner in Game 2 in Oakland Tuesday. In fact the NBA as a whole must be ecstatic as all four conference semifinals this year were at 1-1 after the first two games with all four lower seeds stealing one game on the road.

The Warriors had been perfect in the post-season prior to that upset as 9½-point home favorites as they swept four games from the eighth seeded New Orleans Pelicans in the first round and then were the easy winning NBA picks 101-86 in Game 1 of this series in Oakland. Also, the Grizzlies are not your typical five-seeds as they were one win away from being a two-seed, and they had home court advantage while disposing of fourth seeded Portland in five games Round 1.

Deceptive Scores So Far?
The first two games of this series have gone ‘under’, but that does not tell the whole story, especially with the Warriors probably being the team looking to force their will and speed the pace tonight coming off of a loss. Besides, can we really expect the Golden State Dynamic Duo of MVP Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to shoot so poorly again?

Game 1 probably would have gone ‘over’ if it was more competitive, as it was on an ‘over’ pace through three quarters. The problem was that the Warriors had a huge lead so both teams were rather sloppy in the fourth quarter where Memphis outscored Golden State just 20-18 in a low scoring stanza that saddened ‘over’ players everywhere.

Then came Game 2 where a Warriors’ team that led the NBA in scoring at 110.0 points per game, field goal percentage at 47.8 percent and three-point shooting at 39.8 percent during the regular season uncharacteristically shot 41.9 percent overall and went 6-for-26 beyond the three-point arc. That included league MVP Curry going 7-for-19 overall and 2-for-11 from three-point land and Thompson going 6-for-15 with most of his field goals coming late after the game was decided.

Do not expect the Warriors as a team to shoot that poorly in back-to-back games, nor for Curry and Thompson to again do so at the same time, which almost never happened this year prior to Tuesday.

Grizzlies Not as Adverse to Fast Pace as Recent Years
Now obviously the Grizzlies’ goal will be try and slow this pace down to their preferred tempo, as this is a team that ranked 26th in the NBA in pace rating this year at a scant 94.2 possessions per game. For comparative purposes, consider that the Warriors led the league in that category as the only NBA team to average at least 100 possessions, averaging 100.7.

The fear for Memphis here is that we do not think that there is a team in the league that can slow the Warriors down when they are in an angry mood following a loss, so the Grizzlies may have to accept the fact that this will be a faster paced game than they would prefer to play. The difference between this Memphis team and those of recent years though is that this one can still hang around and even still pull another shocker even if the game is played at the Warriors’ pace.

A couple of examples of that were the Grizzlies going on the road to Portland and winning 115-109 in Game 3 of the first round, and also in the last regular season meeting vs. the Warriors where Memphis played them as tight as any team did all year in Oakland despite the high score in a 111-107 loss. The main point here is that the Grizzlies will not automatically do everything in their power to slow this game if it starts to turn into a track meet.

High Scoring Golden State Games off of ATS Losses
Finally, the Warriors usually react well offensively after sub-par performances. To wit, the ‘over’ is 8-3 in their last 11 games when coming off of ATS losses, with a very high average combined total score in those games of 218.2 points.

Look for a similar outcome here and the first ‘over’ of this series when Golden State visits Memphis for Game 3 on ABC on Saturday.

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NBA Pick: Warriors, Grizzlies ‘over’ 196 (-110)

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