Warriors vs. Celtics Game 4 NBA Finals Picks: Can Golden State Even Series Again?

Henry John

Last Updated: June 9, 2022 12:23 PM EDT • 4 min 1 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 08: Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Golden State Warriors drives to the basket against Jaylen Brown #7, Payton Pritchard #11 and Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics in the second quarter during Game Three of the 2022 NBA Finals at TD Garden on June 08, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Boston Celtics won 116-100. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Pool - Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports/2022 Getty Images/AFP (Photo by POOL / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Golden State Warriors hope to avoid a serious series hole when they face the Boston Celtics on Friday. We offer up our picks for Warriors-Celtics Game 4.

Although the Warriors (10-9 against the spread, 12-7 Over/Under) fell short in their quest to reclaim home-court advantage on Wednesday, it does appear that the Western Conference champs avoided one catastrophic loss. Star shooter Steph Curry hurt his foot in Game 3, but all signs point towards him being a full-go on Friday. Considering how poor the rest of the Warriors have played offensively in The Finals, Curry’s presence is vital to them having any shot at tying the series.

The Celtics (14-7 ATS, 10-11 O/U) have easily looked like the better team through three games despite being the betting underdog prior to the series. Aside from getting their doors blown off in the third quarter — something that happened yet again in Game 3 at home — Boston has been sharp in taking a 2-1 series lead. The fact that Jayson Tatum has struggled and the Celtics still have a series advantage is a true nod to the depth that litters this team.

Here are my picks and predictions for Friday’s NBA Finals Game 4 matchup between the Warriors and the Celtics (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Warriors vs. Celtics Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, June 10, 9 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Warriors vs. Celtics Odds Analysis

The opening point spread for Game 4 mirrored the one we saw for Game 3 of these NBA Finals. The Celtics were initially tabbed as a 3.5-point favorite. The accompanying price quickly went to -115 on Boston before the market moved altogether. At the time of writing, all major sportsbooks list the Celtics as a 4-point home favorite. However, the Warriors are trending towards being a public underdog. Golden State has garnered 60% of moneyline bets and 51% of all ATS tickets thus far.

While the NBA betting spread has grown larger, the total has moved in the opposite direction. The initial total posted by bookmakers for Game 4 was 215.5. The entire market has since moved down one full point to 214.5 despite 60% of all bets being on the Over.

Warriors vs. Celtics Picks

Celtics -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ???Under 214.5 (-105 via PointsBet) ????Andrew Wiggins Over 5.5 rebounds (-122 via FanDuel) ????

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Warriors vs. Celtics Predictions

Celtics -3.5 (-115)

The Celtics are by far the deeper team in this NBA Finals matchup. In addition to their core trio of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Robert Williams III, Derrick White, and Grant Williams played very well in Game 3 at home. It was particularly encouraging to see Robert Williams play 26 minutes and be able to make a difference on the glass and in rim protection. His presence is critical to the Celtics’ defensive game plan.

While Boston has had numerous players step up, the Warriors have hardly had their “Big Three” emerge in this series. Curry has been tremendous, but a sore foot could compromise his effectiveness somewhat going forward. One also has to believe the Celtics will make some defensive adjustments to counteract the high ball screen sets that Golden State ran nonstop in their big third quarter on Wednesday.

With advantages in offensive depth, size, and athleticism all over the floor, the Celtics are the side to ride with for Game 4. The ability to obtain a half-point of value through BetMGM makes this pick all the more intriguing.

Under 214.5 (-105)

Two of the first three games in this series have eclipsed 214.5 total points, and Game 3 had 216. The fact that both teams had so many defensive lapses and still barely surpassed the total makes it hard to envision this occurring again in Friday’s matchup.

The Celtics got killed repeatedly by Curry coming up the floor and popping off quick 3-pointers from the top of the key. Miscommunication between Horford and Robert Williams with guards Smart and White on high ball screens left Curry open time and time again. Bettors can be sure that the Celtics will adjust between games, and Curry’s apparent foot injury will also hinder his stop and pop ability in Game 4.

On the other end, the Warriors gave up far too many easy buckets for a team that was second in defensive rating throughout the season. The Celtics completely flipped the points in the paint margin from Game 2 and then some on Wednesday, finishing with a 52-26 edge in that department.

The Warriors are desperate, and they figure to play defense with a kind of spirit and intensity more similar to Game 2 than what we saw on Wednesday. All signs point towards a lower final score in Game 4.

Wiggins Over 5.5 rebounds (-122)

Andrew Wiggins has been flying over his season rebounding average of 4.5 per game all throughout the NBA Playoffs. For a while, the oddsmakers were setting his NBA props total two full boards higher at 6.5. That line has come back down to 5.5 for the NBA Finals, and Wiggins has now exceeded it in back-to-back games. After falling just short in Game 1, the 27-year-old pulled down six and seven boards in the last two contests.

A huge reason for this discrepancy is the personnel nightmare that head coach Steve Kerr and the Warriors are facing in this series. Golden State is drastically outsized, especially when neither Kevon Looney nor Draymond Green is on the floor. So why not just ensure that at least one, if not both bigs are on the floor?

That's because both Looney and Green are also massive offensive liabilities. When Kerr has elected to play both bigs together, the Warriors have had almost no spacing. The Celtics are a tough defensive opponent as it is, let alone when they don’t have to worry about the shot-making abilities of two players. When Kerr takes one of his bigs (usually Looney) out of the game, the Warriors have virtually no answers inside.

Thus, a long, athletic wing player like Wiggins has no choice but to be active on the glass. Expect this to continue in Game 4.

Where to Bet on Warriors-Celtics Picks

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Warriors-Celtics picks made on 6/9/2022 at 4:52 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.