Warriors vs. Celtics Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Marcus Smart Let It Fly?

It is an NBA Finals rematch as the defending champion Golden State Warriors are fielding one of their healthiest teams of the season to visit the NBA-leading Boston Celtics on TNT Thursday. Here are our Warriors vs. Celtics NBA picks based on the top odds.

The Warriors have failed to get any long-term momentum this season — partially due to injuries and partially due to underperforming — especially on the road where they have an embarrassing 5-17 record. On Thursday, they will have their full preferred starting lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney in action.

The Celtics, on the other hand, are feeling it once again and have won seven straight games. They now look to get revenge against a Warriors team that beat them in their first meeting on the West Coast but might have to do it without their second option on offense, Jaylen Brown, who has been out for the last three games due to an adductor injury. Boston will list Brown as questionable ahead of the primetime contest.

Here is our best Warriors vs. Celtics NBA pick (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Warriors vs. Celtics Game Info

Date: Thursday, Jan. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: TD Garden

Warriors vs. Celtics Odds

Warriors vs. Celtics Odds Analysis

With a majority of the public action on the Celtics, the spread on this continues to hover between 5.5 and 7 points in favor of the home team. Boston is 26-19-0 ATS overall (third-best cover rate in the NBA), 13-9-0 ATS as a home favorite, and 19-13-0 ATS following a win. Golden State is 20-23-1 ATS (10th-worst), 3-8-0 ATS as a road underdog (second-worst), and 7-13-1 ATS following a win (fifth-worst).

The Vegas total on this game opened up at 237.5 but with a majority of the action coming in on the Over, the line has been pushed upward a couple of points and now rests between 239 and 240. Boston’s home games have a 14-7-1 record to the Over, the third-highest rate in the league. Golden State’s road games have a 16-4-1 record to the Over, the highest rate in the league.

Warriors vs. Celtics Pick

Marcus Smart 2-plus threes & win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has been a key component to the playmaking of the first-place Boston Celtics, but I expect him to shoot from beyond the arc with volume on Thursday. Over their last 15 games, the Warriors have already allowed the most made 3-pointers in the NBA to point guards. Now, their full starting lineup is healthy and their defensive attention will be skewed towards Jayson Tatum and maybe Jaylen Brown. That is why Smart has made at least two threes in 10 of his last 12 games against Golden State, averaging 6.9 attempts per game in those matchups.

This season, Smart has also made at least two threes in 16 of the Celtics’ 28 wins when he plays, which means this correlative play at plus-money is great value. If Brown is out, that is fine —Smart has made at least two threes in four of his five games without Brown.

I expect Boston to take care of business at home on primetime regardless of Brown’s availability, especially after getting smacked once again by Golden State earlier in the season. They have only started the season 0-2 against a single opponent once this season (Cleveland Cavaliers) and are 13-3 straight up at home when favored by less than 10 points.

Warriors vs. Celtics Best Odds

Caesars Sportsbook (+116)

While this prop is not available yet anywhere as a single player performance double, you can play it individually as a two-leg same-game parlay on most platforms, with the best price landing on Caesars Sportsbook at the moment. Your parlay should look like this:

This line could very well move throughout the day, especially if we get early news about the availability of Jaylen Brown. I would play this down to even-money (+100). If your book does not have the option to combine props in the same game, I would not pay up the juice for Smart to hit two threes alone, as the extreme value in this prop resides in the correlation between his shooting and a Celtics win.

Warriors-Celtics pick made 01/19/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

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