It’s a stacked Monday of NBA action tonight, and I think there are some great games to take advantage of. I have found two that are very valuable tonight, so follow along for my two NBA Picks of the day.
Grizzlies vs. Wizards
Not having Nene is going to really hurt the Wizards, especially against big teams like the Grizzlies coming in tonight. The NBA Odds have the Wizards as +2 home dogs, with a total of 189 ½. Even though I do think the Wiz could knock off Memphis tonight, I also think a much more valuable and safer wager is on the total of 189 ½.
The first meeting between these two teams went under in Memphis this season, and the total there was 181 ½. In fact even though they don’t play one another often, the total has gone under in three of the last four meetings between these teams, as well as five of their last seven games against one another.
Memphis has been solid against the East this season, and their inter-conference opponents are scoring an average of only 91 points per game. The Grizzlies also have the #1 ranked road defense in the NBA this season too. Nene hurts the Wizards’ offense more than their defense, and with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley coming to town, scoring will be tough for John Wall and the recently surging Marcin Gortat.
This total is slightly overvaluing the Wizards’ offense here, and definitely undervaluing the Memphis defense. We are getting to the point in the season where the under is going to start having some great value, as teams start to really pick things up on the defensive end of the floor. Every passing day is one less teams have before the playoffs, and there is not much time left to secure a spot. Both of these teams are solidly in the position of fighting for their playoff lives in the final 25 games.
In nine road games as favorites this season, the Grizzlies have cashed the under in seven of them, and I think they will defend their way to another tonight. One or both of these teams won’t touch 90 points.
NBA Pick: UNDER 189 ½
This is only the second meeting between these two teams this season, and the NBA Odds have the Blazers as huge -12 favorites, with a total of 221. The Lakers have been getting healthier by the day, but they are still without some key guys tonight. However the Blazers are back to healthy, and recently they have been playing excellent basketball.
LaMarcus Aldridge is back for Portland, but even before he returned, the Blazers were playing some good defense. In their last five games, Portland’s opponents have averaged only 92.4 points per game, which is close to excellent in the NBA. Granted their opponents were Denver twice, Minnesota, Utah and Brooklyn, but it might just be the push they need to actually contend for a very high playoff seed. This will encourage them to ramp up their effort on the defensive end for the rest of the season, especially tonight against the Lakers.
Obviously LA isn’t going to stop the Blazers’ offense, but will the Lakers be able to score against the improved Blazers defense? I don’t think so. In fact even when the Blazers were slumping, they were a great under bet. Now they are winning, and they are still very overvalued in their totals. A total of over 220 is much too high tonight in Portland.
The under is 14-7-1 in Portland’s last 22 games, and I see that trend continuing tonight with the Lakers in town. Aldridge will slow down Pau Gasol, and right now Gasol is the only consistent offensive weapon for the Lakers. I could see the Blazers dropping 115 points tonight for our basketball picks, but I don’t see the Lakers getting that far above 100.
NBA Pick: UNDER 221