Wizards vs. Bulls Game 5
Chicago heads back home for Game 5 down 1-3, and if they don’t find some offense fast, they will be fishing with the Bobcats after tonight. The NBA Odds seem to think this series will be extended, as they have the Bulls as -4 favorites at home, with a total of 183 ½.
Even if their offense doesn’t drop 100 points, the Bulls can still win and cover this spread. At home, with the home crowd behind them, they should play some of their best defense this series. Not only are they facing elimination on their home court, but the Wizards embarrassed this defense in Games 1 and 2, and you can bet the Bulls will want to hold them under 90 points here if they can. As long as the Wizards stay in the lower 90s, the Bulls should cover here.
Even with Nene coming back, that might ignite the Chicago crowd even more. The Wizards fans were booing Jimmy Butler all game in Game 4, (a game I witnessed personally) and you can expect the same treatment from the Chicago faithful in Game 5.
I also think the books are trying to get people to take the points and the moneyline here. The Wizards have been impressive, and they will likely move on in this series, but I think the Bulls are going to win and cover tonight. Their offense does statistically improve going home compared to the road, and I think it will lead to the Bulls having great NBA Odds value tonight.
My Pick: Bulls -4
Warriors vs. Clippers Game 5
If this series wasn’t dramatic enough, the racist and insensitive comments by Donald Sterling over the weekend has taken this series into another stratosphere when it comes to drama. After the Warriors dismantled the Clippers in Game 4, this series shifts back to Los Angeles tied 2-2. The NBA Odds have the Clippers as -6 favorites tonight even after getting blown out, and the total sits at 210 ½.
The Clippers should bounce back on defense here, but the Warriors have shown throughout this series that they can slow down LA’s offense. Even though tonight’s game is in LA, I think it could be lower scoring. The total of 210 ½ is too high as well. After the Warriors were an under cashing machine during the regular season, six of their last seven totals dating back to the last three games of the regular season have gone over.
Another factor is the tied series. Back in Game 3 when the series was tied, both of these teams failed to reach 100 points, and it was the only time in the series where the total has gone under. I think we see a shift tonight back into a more defensive game, where both teams work the half court some more. This is too important of a game to risk in a shootout. I see the unique circumstances of the series, along with the total being a bit overvalued leading to the under being a solid play for your NBA Picks.
My Pick: UNDER 210 ½