Warriors vs. Blazers
Even with only two or three games remaining for some teams out West, there is still a lot of shuffling that can happen on the final days of the season. Tonight, the NBA Odds for the Warriors and Blazers favors Portland at -3, with a total of 202 ½. The Blazers have covered two of the first three meetings between these two teams, and while I do think there is value in this spread, once again this late in the season, I think the total is much better.
Even though Portland has been playing pretty solid defense recently, their average of only giving up 96 points per game over their last ten games is a little skewed. They have had three straight games against West lottery teams coming into this one, and if they win tonight, they have two full days off in between their final game with the Clippers on Wednesday.
Combine this with the Warriors’ desire to not fall below the 6th seed, and this total of 202 ½ looks primed for an over bet. Some teams buckle down on defense in a big game, and while both of these teams have some defensive upside, they also both have pretty high-powered offenses. The Warriors have dropped almost 105 points per game in their last ten games, and Portland has cashed the over this season at 27-22 versus conference opponents. Look for a faster game and an over cash for your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: OVER
Grizzlies vs. Lakers
Memphis needs this win a lot to keep their spot above Phoenix for the #8 seed out West, which is the final playoff spot left in the NBA. However the NBA Odds favor the Grizzlies here at -12 on the road, with a total of 207 ½. Even though Memphis could cover this spread, I see much more value in the total.
The Lakers have cashed the under in four of their last five games, and without half of their team right now, their offense leaves a lot to be desired. Tonight’s matchup won’t make things any easier. The Grizzlies are poised to make the playoffs, and they will be locked in defensively. Memphis also has the #1 ranked road defense this season at just over 93 opponents points per game.
The under has cashed in two of the three times these two have played one another this season, and four of the last five if you include contests from last season. The total of 207 ½ would reflect the Lakers need over 90 points here tonight, and I don’t know if they can get it. Even with the LA defense giving up 116 points per game in their last ten, in games where the Grizzlies are favored on the road this season, the under has cashed at 13-3.
If Memphis wins tonight, they will be a full one game up on the Suns for the 8th seed. However conveniently, the NBA has allowed us to see a coincidental play-in game for the final spot in the playoffs, because the Grizzlies and Suns hook up in Phoenix tomorrow night. In other words, Memphis is going to want to get their guys some rest, so I see them coming out early and putting LA away. Another wager that might be good is Memphis -6 1H. Add that with the under for a great combo or parlay for Sunday.
NBA Pick: UNDER