Bucks vs. Wizards
The Wizards got a win last night in Orlando, and with Charlotte’s loss, the Wizards are back into the 6th seed in the East. They have a chance to stretch that lead tonight as they play the Bucks at home. The Cats have the Sixers tonight as well, so dropping this game could mean a much less desirable playoff seed for Washington.
The NBA Odds have the Wizards as -10 ½ favorites on the second night of a back to back, with a total of 202. While the spread does look inviting, I think the total has a lot of value tonight, and at 202, it looks great for an over bet.
With both teams coming off the back to back, they should be tired at this point of the season. The Bucks should be especially tired because they are down nearly half of their opening night roster at this point in the season. Even though Milwaukee isn’t great cashing the over on no rest, the total of 202 is a little undervalued. However when the Bucks play the East, they are 31-17 cashing the over.
Washington and Milwaukee have cashed the over in their last four meetings with one another, and three of them have been this season. Also, seven of the last nine times they have met, the total has gone over. Milwaukee has cashed the over in six of their last eight road games, and even though they only cash the over at 8-13 on no rest, the road has been a better over cashing environment for them.
If Washington can carry over their momentum tonight, the total should go over for our basketball picks. After a win this season, the Wizards are 22-18 cashing the over.
NBA Pick: OVER 202
Celtics vs. Cavs
Another set of teams that played on Friday night are the Celtics and Cavs, and the NBA Odds have the Cavs as big -8 favorites, with a total of 204 ½. Once again, I think the total may be the better play, and once again the over looks like great value.
Off the back to back, both teams will likely be tired, and the Celtics won’t have Rajon Rondo. Although that may hurt their offense some, I don’t think it will matter with a total that’s so low. Cleveland has been slightly above .500 cashing the over on no rest, and with Kyrie Irving back, the Cavs should put up plenty of points against the Rondo-less Celtics.
Boston’s defense has collapsed since the start of the season, and in their last ten games, they are giving up an average of over 106 points per game. Neither team has much to play for, but that may make this a more relaxed game, which could really help an over bet. I expect the Cavs to have plenty of opportunities to score tonight. Playing without Rondo will hurt the Celtics’ defense too, because the quality of their possessions will drop a lot without their floor general. I think it will lead to a higher scoring game.
NBA Pick: OVER 204 ½