While the NBA card for this Monday night isn’t very stacked with games, I do think it’s stacked with NBA Odds value. I have found several games I am willing to take a chance on, and even with only six games, the value is all over the board tonight.
Hawks vs. Bobcats
Charlotte is coming off a win in Milwaukee last night, and even though the game was a bit closer than most would have thought, the Bobcats still got the cover ATS. Now they head home to play their Southeast divisional rival, the Hawks. The NBA Odds have the Cats as -2 ½ home favorites, with a total of 200 even. At this point the Hawks are almost trying to lose to get a chance at the lottery, however I am not playing the spread here, because the total is twice as valuable tonight.
The Cats are on their third game in four nights, and I think their offense will suffer some because of it. At this point in the season, even the Hawks’ non-existent defense could hold Charlotte south of 100 points. Even with the Hawks giving up a ton of points, the Bobcats are ranked near the bottom in the league in home scoring, and a big reason why is their style of play, and because of their stellar home defense.
The Bobcats are a top five home defensive team this season, and even on the second night of a back to back, I doubt it waivers much. The Bobcats are giving up only 93 points per game at home this year, and they matchup well against Atlanta. Charlotte will own the paint, and even Paul Millsap will only be able to rent space with Al Jefferson lurking.
Charlotte is only 10-9-1 cashing the over this year on the second night of a back to back, but they did have a little more rest after playing Sunday afternoon. The Cats are 11-3 cashing the under this season as home favorites, and I’m sure not many of those games had a 200 point total.
NBA Pick: UNDER 200
Jazz vs. Rockets
Both of these teams played yesterday, and both ended up on the losing side. Surprisingly enough, both teams enter this contest with matching three game losing streaks, but the NBA Odds still have the Rockets as -13 ½ favorites tonight, with a total of 203 ½.
Houston has lost their three to the Heat, Thunder and Bulls, and even though I’m not discounting Utah’s losses, all three of Houston’s were on the road. However I am more interested in the total for this one, and at 203 ½, I think it’s primed for an over bet.
The spread of 13 points is much too high anyway, however at 203 ½, the Rockets getting north of 110 would almost surely cash the over. After losing three straight games, you can bet they’ll have their foot firmly on the gas pedal until they have this game in hand, and that might be after they score 85 points through three quarters. In fact these two teams haven’t played since December, and the Jazz beat the Rockets after scoring 109 on them in Utah.
The Jazz should be able to at least put up points into the 90s, and that should be enough for the over. Even though Utah is only 8-11 cashing the over on the second night of a back to back, their offense plays better in up tempo games.
No one on Utah will be able to slow down James Harden or Dwight Howard, and while Houston has been split on their totals this season when playing on no rest, 203 ½ seems like a nice value play on a short card.
NBA Pick: OVER 203 ½