Can Donovan Mitchell Carry Utah to Western Conference Finals?

Friday, October 12, 2018 3:51 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 12, 2018 3:51 PM UTC

The Utah Jazz won 48 games last season and they have been given a season win total of 49.5 in 2018-19 from Bovada sportsbook.

Utah Jazz PreviewFree NBA Pick: Win Northwest DivisionBest Line Offered: BetOnline

  • 2017-18 Record: 48-34
  • 2017-18 ATS Record: 47-46
  • (Bovada) 2018-19 Season Win Total: (49.5)
  • (Bovada) Odds To Make Playoffs: (-600)
  • (BetOnline) Odds To Win Division: (+200)
  • (BetOnline) Odds To Win Western Conference: (+3300)
  • (BetOnline) Odds To Win NBA Championship: (+7500)

Utah is being picked as one of the sleeper teams out West this season. Behind all the hype for the Lakers, Rockets, and Thunder, the Jazz may be better than all of them. It all revolves around one of the league’s most talented young players, Donovan Mitchell.


ATS Outlook

Last season the Utah Jazz took the NBA by storm with the unveiling of their super-talented rookie. Coming out of Louisville, basketball experts knew Mitchell’s talent level, but I don’t think anyone outside of Salt Lake City predicted that kind of scaling from the rookie guard.

Now the rest of the league knows Mitchell is coming, and they better get ready. Mitchell’s game has very few holes and along with a very talented group of guys on Utah right now, the goal has to be a divisional win.

The Jazz have a great home court advantage too, which should be one of the main factors that helps (or hurts) their ATS value in 2018-19. Last season Utah went just 23-23 ATS at home, but they were 7-5 ATS as a home underdog, and an even more impressive 9-6 ATS as a road favorite.

But the real value in their home/road splits came in total better. Last season on the road the Jazz were 26-20-1 cashing the over, compared to cashing the under at 29-17 in both the regular season and the playoffs.

This was likely due to the pace and defense they played at home versus on the road. At home Utah played with a defensive rating of less than 100 points per 48 minutes, but on the road that number jumped to more than 105. If Utah continues playing defense better at home versus the road, they could once again be a nice total bet depending on the venue they’re playing at.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

The @utahjazz go 5-0 in #NBAPreseason action behind big performances from Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, & Grayson Allen tonight in Sacramento! pic.twitter.com/QyOxTCQfpg

— NBA (@NBA) October 12, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

How Can They Dethrone The Warriors?

The simple answer to this question is they can’t. But the more complicated answer is they can if things fall into place. Imagine Mitchell taking another leap this season and competing for MVP. Along with a talented team and the Jazz will win their division over the Thunder if that happens.

Next, they have to avoid the Warriors in the first or second round of the playoffs. Tougher said that done in the West this season, but the Jazz have every capability to get a two or three seed if the Warriors are number one.

The last thing they need is to make a trade for another scorer or hope for an injury to the Dubs. If DeMarcus Cousins doesn’t come back healthy, or there is another long term/serious injury to Stephen Curry or another Warriors star, the door is open for Utah, or one of the other elite teams in the West. Starting with their odds to win the division is a good bet to take. I know preseason means nothing, but so far the Jazz have looked pretty good in it.

comment here