Use Moneyline To Squeeze Max Value From Blazers-Thunder Game 4

Saturday, April 20, 2019 6:49 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 20, 2019 6:49 PM UTC

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a moneyline bargain on the NBA odds board for Sunday’s Game 4 against the Portland Trail Blazers.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Apr. 19: </strong><br />26-29-1 ATS, 0-5 ML (minus-10.35 units), 36-22-1 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Portland (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Oklahoma City (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Thunder ML</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Sportsbook: <a href=";book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook!">5Dimes</a></strong></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3773923, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,19,999991], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>How about those Oklahoma City Thunder? They couldn’t hit a bucket in either of their first two games against the Portland Trail Blazers, but the Thunder made hay in Game 3 Friday night, winning 120-108 as 7.5-point home faves. More importantly for us, they went ‘over’ the 221-point total, <a href="" target="_blank" title="Early Action On ‘Over’ For Blazers-Thunder Game 3">just like we planned it</a>.<br /><br />The zig-zag law says Oklahoma City should be even bigger favorites for Game 4 on Sunday, but people don’t seem to care about the law these days. At press time, the Thunder are 6-point favorites on the <a href="" target="_blank" title="Live NBA Odds Board">NBA odds board</a>, holding steady since the open. The consensus reports show 75 percent of early bettors on OKC. I think we’ll hop on board – but as you can see, we’re recommending the moneyline instead of the spread.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Fair’s Fair</strong></h2><p>We’re all about value here at the home office. According to the hoop nerds at FiveThirtyEight, Oklahoma City projects as a 7-point favorite for Game 4, so yes, they appear to be undervalued at –6. But we’re using the old Malumuth-Sklansky approach that says you want a 2-point gap between the projections and the actual odds before you make your <a href="" target="_blank" title="More NBA Picks">NBA picks</a>. Gotta have our profit margin.<br /><br />You’ll find it on the moneyline. The Thunder are available as low as –228 as I write this, or as high as –270 if you like lighting money on fire. If you look at the “fair lines” over at Wizard of Odds, they equate a –228 moneyline with a point spread somewhere between –5 and –5.5, leaning closer to –5. That’s still a shade less than two points compared to –7, but it’s close enough for us to recommend a small bet.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The Thunder may have won but Russ still wasn't having it during the postgame interview 😶&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;(via &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;@NBCSNorthwest&lt;/a&gt;) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;20 de abril de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Mmmmm... Turnovers</strong></h2><p>If you’re looking to bet the total for Sunday’s matchup, that might be a bit dicey. We got the positive regression we were looking for with Oklahoma City’s 3-point shooting in Game 3; the Thunder shot 15-of-29 (51.7 percent), well above their regular-season rate of 34.8 percent. Maybe the ‘under’ has some value now that Sunday’s total is up to 223.5 points, but that’s still one point below the totals for Games 1 and 2 in Portland.</p><p>We also might see some regression when it comes to all those turnovers in Game 3. The Trail Blazers coughed up the ball 18 times, which is a lot – although the Thunder did lead the league with a 14.4-percent turnover rate on defense. OKC committed 15 turnovers themselves; some of those lost possessions for both clubs will likely turn into points on Sunday. <a href="" target="_blank" title="Discuss this and other games at SBR's NBA Betting Forum">We’ll stick with the Thunder on the ML</a>, and see if we can break that silly 0-5 streak we’re on.</p>
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