Upset Alert! Pick Home Dog Grizzlies on the Money Line Over East Favorite Cavaliers

Charles Stark

Wednesday, March 25, 2015 11:57 AM GMT

Minor upset coming today when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Memphis Grizzlies.  I am taking the Grizzlies here on the money line in this spot and I suggest you do too.

Cleveland is Favored?
Ok I get it, Cleveland has a better record than Memphis… umm no.  Well then, they must be statistically dominant, right?  Again… no.  But they shoot the ball better from the field, correct?  Sorry… swing and a miss. Fine, then recently they must be playing better defense… that has to be right!  That would be strike four. Still, even with all this I can still see why Cleveland is favored, the perception being that they are rolling right now.  The NBA odds makers opened this game up at Cleveland -2. I am sure that is coming from this perception on the Cavs right now and the fact that Lee might be out. This is again one of those situations where it is not surprising the more popular team with the high profile talent is favored when actually the opponent is really the better overall team. I think Memphis will take a bit of offense to them being the underdogs, at home, and come out with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. They are a great defensive team and have been playing great basketball all year.

 

Digging Deeper Offensively
I really do understand the line, but I like the way Memphis matches up here.  For the year the two teams are tied shooting 46% from the field. Cleveland has shot the three a bit better for the year at 36.5% compared to the Grizzlies at 34.6%. Since the break Cleveland has played exceptionally better basketball shooting 46.8% from the field and almost 40% from beyond the arc. In that same time frame Memphis is not far behind shooting 45.3% from the field and 36.7% beyond the arc. The Cavs are also second in the league in scoring in this time frame at 107 points per game average, they really like to shoot the three and are fourth in the league in three point shots attempted at 27 per game.

Looks like the Grizzlies are being favored by our cappers tonight!

Digging Deeper Defensively
This where things get quite different and starts to add reasons why I like the Grizzlies in this spot. For the year Memphis is ranked 11th in the league allowing 44.2% from the field, Cleveland is ranked 22nd in the league at 45.5%. Also for the year Memphis is ranked 2nd in the league defensively in opponent scoring average at 95.2 points per game, the Cavs allow 98.7 points. Of course scoring average has to do somewhat with pace, and if this game was in Cleveland I would lean towards them controlling tempo, but in Memphis I will lean towards the Grizzlies controlling the flow.  Recently both teams have stepped up defensively, in the last three games Memphis is holding opponents to an 89.7 scoring average while the Cavs are allowing 91.3.  The difference is that this is more of the norm with Memphis than Cleveland.  While they are close in points allowed Memphis has been much efficient on that end of the floor.  In the last three games they are allowing an average of 43.4% from the field, Cleveland is allowing 47% in that same time frame.

Although this line is small I am going to take the Grizzlies on the plus money line. They are a better team in my opinion and the NBA odds makers are relying on Cleveland’s recent success to get money on their side. Memphis should come out and play well on the defensive end.  One last statistic, the Grizzlies are 3rd ranked in the NBA in opponent assist to turnover ratio, Cleveland is ranked second to last in this same category.  Look for Memphis to control this game and come out with the win. I recommend you add them to your NBA picks.

NBA Pick:  Memphis +108 at 5Dimes

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