Upset Alert! Pick Heat +150 as Money Line Underdog vs. Thunder

Charles Stark

Sunday, March 22, 2015 12:54 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 22, 2015 12:54 PM UTC

If you're looking for the most profitable NBA pick today, look no further as my upset alert focuses on two of the hottest teams this March: Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder.

En Fuego
Both OKC and the Miami Heat are playing really good basketball.  But there are some certain things I like about this matchup as well as the number that is making me take the Heat for the upset.  The NBA odds makers have opened this game up making OKC the natural favorite at -3.5 at home.  To me that seems like a pretty low number and makes the Thunder pretty enticing, don’t but into that though.  The Heat have enough to come in and win this game straight up.  It takes a lot for me to go against the Thunder at home, and they are playing well despite the loss of Durant and Ibaka.  Right now both teams are really hot with the Thunder at 7-3 in March and winning their last two at home, and the Heat are also 7-3 in March and have won their last three in a row.

We include Heat vs. Thunder in our best ATS NBA Picks today

Closer Look at the Thunder
Westbrook has been a one man wrecking crew this year, I mean you crush his face and he still comes after you, let me insert a Rocky II quote here that sums up Russell this year (not verbatim), “You beat that man like I never saw another man get beat, and the man kept coming after you, we don’t need a man like that in our life baby.”  Since the break the Thunder are shooting 45.3% from the field and 35.7% beyond the arc.  At home for the year, their home court has not been the terror as in years past though.  Statistically they have shot the ball pretty well at around 45%at home, but beyond the arc they have been nothing special at around 33%.  They are 25-9 at home which is good, but still, there are several teams in the league with better home records, they are beatable in Oklahoma.  Recently they have been shooting the ball really well, in their last three games they are shooting over 47% from the field.  The worrying part I think though is coming on the defensive end, although they do push tempo (ranked 5th in the league in shots attempted) in the last three games they are allowing opponents to shoot over 49% (2nd worst in the NBA in this time frame) from the field and over 40% behind the arc.  I don’t think they can continue this type of defensive play and continue to be consistent on the winning side of things.


Heat Check
The last three games Miami has pushed the ball a bit more but have still remained defensively ok allowing 45% from the field and only 32.6% from beyond the arc.  Offensively they are not turning the ball over too much and in the last three games they are shooting 53.7% from the field (leading the league in this time frame), and 44% beyond the arc (ranked fifth same time frame).  Since the break they are second ranked in the league shooting over 47% from the field.  All cylinders seem to be clicking for them at the right time for a playoff push.
I like how the Heat are not letting the Bosh injury slow them down.  They face a tough task in winning in OKC but they are playing well enough to do it.  With the sports books having the line pretty low at -3.5 it tells me they think so too.  Although it may be intimidating to place NBA picks against Westbrook and the Thunder at home, be confident that Spoelstra will come in with a solid defensive plan and look for Miami to pull the upset.

NBA Pick: Miami +150 from 5Dimes Sports Book

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