Upset Alert! Grizzlies to Beat Warriors & NBA Odds in Game 4

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, May 11, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

Monday, May. 11, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

Before placing your next NBA pick, note that public perception is a dangerous indicator. When the realities run counter to this public thought process, it is when we step in with a huge value based winner.

Golden St. Warriors (-4-) at Memphis Grizzlies 9:30 ET TNT TV
Memphis and Golden St. continue their best of 7 series at the Grind House tonight, where the Grizzlies 35-10 record is superior to the 30-14 road log of Golden St., who had the NBA’s best road record.  After 87 games, Golden St. was 72-15 with 5 straight playoff wins, after they blew out Memphis (101-86) in the first game of the series.  Since that time, the defense and rebounding of Memphis have carried the day with a 97-90 bounce back win at Golden St., followed by a 99-89 win vs. the Warriors, Saturday night at the FedEx Forum.  Now Memphis, who is 6-2 in the playoffs, can take a commanding lead of 3 games to 1 in the series with this home victory as underdogs in NBA odds.  

In Saturday night’s home win, Memphis held the high-scoring Warriors, who averaged 110 PPG in the regular season, to just 43% from the field and 23% from the arc on 6 of 26 shooting.  That included 2 of 10 triples for current NBA MVP, Steph Curry.  As usual, Memphis was grinding on the interior with Gasol and Randolph combining for 43 points and 23 boards. Return of injured lead guard, Mike Conley (facial), has been a big boost to the team for his defensive presence and leadership and open court play.  Memphis is built for playoff basketball with their strong emphasis on defense and rebounding.  It is one of the reasons why, in the last 4 seasons, they are an NBA best 32-17 ATS in the playoffs.  

Golden St. made a living in the regular season by getting into an offensive flow in the open court that NBA opposing defenses could not contain.  But, that type of regular season success rarely translates to wins, once the NBA Playoffs grind to the half court.  With Curry wearing the heavy mantel of NBA MVP, there is increased pressure to make shots from 25 feet from the basket.

Regarding my NBA picks tonight, I far prefer the NBA Playoff style of Memphis, who is willing to patiently pound it inside to interior forces, Gasol and Randolph, for whom Golden St. appears to have no answer.  With Conley and Allen willing to focus on the defensive perimeter, there has not been as much “splashing” from behind the arc for Curry and Thompson.  This line is simply not an accurate representation of these two teams’ abilities on this court in an NBA playoff setting and atmosphere.  Outright Memphis victory no surprise to this bureau!

NBA Picks: Grizzlies +160 at YouWager

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