Underdog to Cover NBA Odds: Pick Bulls ATS Over Grizzlies

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 9, 2015 2:27 PM GMT

Tonight's NBA Odds have the Bulls as +5 ½ home dogs although they're injured as they welcome in the Grizzlies to Chicago. Could this be the spot where we see the Bulls cover for our NBA Picks?

Anti-Home Court Advantage
At times this season the Bulls have looked lost at home. They tend to play better on the road, which isn’t unheard of in the NBA, but it’s not common. However with their recent injuries, the Bulls kind of realize they can’t mess around for any team or any opponent. They obviously know this with the Grizzlies coming to town tonight. The NBA odds have them as +5 ½ underdogs at home, with a low total of 184 ½ points. However I am going with the radical move in this one, because taking the points looks nice tonight.

This game will obviously have the same luster than the All Star Game did, in that we get to see Pau Gasol face off against his young brother Marc in this one, and with how much the Bulls cross match on defense, I suspect the two Gasol brother will be spending plenty of time in this game defending one another.

Another factor to watch in this game will be Mike Conley. Conley has slowed down recently and doesn’t seem to be as aggressive as he was earlier in the year. Unless he is aggressive tonight and looking to score, the Bulls defense will not be forced to respect the Grizzlies back court. I could see this affecting Aaron Brooks tonight as well. If Conley is passive tonight a looking to set up Gasol or Zach Randolph, Brooks isn’t going to have to work on the defensive end, which will leave him with plenty of extra energy to try and get buckets tonight. All of this could positively affect the Bulls, but the trend also off a nice insight into why Chicago is the play here.

Check out our best NBA Picks Over/Under the Odds

The Sharp Pick
Even though the Bulls have been bad at home this season, they have been much better when the NBA Odds undervalue them enough to have them as home dogs. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs, and on top of that they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games this season against teams with winning SU records.

Memphis on the other hand is in the midst of a slump ATS. Memphis is 0-6 ATS in their last six games as favorites, and they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. To top that off, Memphis is also only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. The Grizzlies’ usual advantage in the post does not exist against the Bulls’ whose post defense has been improving with Joakim Noah’s health. I could still easily see the Bulls losing this game SU, but they are rallying around their injuries even though they are not as good without Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose. Although Chicago played yesterday, they played in the afternoon, making the back-to-back a little less worrisome tonight. Take the points with Chicago, and add it to your NBA picks for Monday.  

NBA Pick: Bulls +5 ½ at 5Dimes