‘Under’ Has Road Value For Rockets In Milwaukee

Monday, March 25, 2019 7:36 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 25, 2019 7:36 PM UTC

The Houston Rockets have made the ‘under’ a profitable NBA pick on the road, which is where they’ll be on Tuesday when they play the Milwaukee Bucks.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 25: 22-21-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 31-14 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Houston (47-27 SU, 34-37-3 ATS) at Milwaukee (55-19 SU, 44-27-3 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET, TNT</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/houston-rockets-vs-milwaukee-bucks-3569062/odds/" target="_blank">Under</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4429&amp;book=Heritage" target="_blank">Heritage</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569062, "sportsbooksIds":[169,238,93,1096,1275], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Here comes the defense, folks. The NBA playoffs are coming up fast, and many of the league’s best teams have taken it up a notch, getting themselves in prime shape for the title chase. With these late-season games becoming more intense, the ‘under’ has made a healthy profit at 27-20 (57.4 percent) over the past seven days; we’re going to make that our official <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank">NBA pick</a> for Tuesday’s prime-time matchup between the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks.</p><h2><strong>Ah, Capela</strong></h2><p>As much as we’d like to pick a side in this contest, there doesn’t seem to be much profit margin with Milwaukee opening as 3.5-point favorites on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball" target="_blank">NBA odds board</a>. That’s exactly where FiveThirtyEight have the Bucks projected. Some locations have already moved Milwaukee to –4.5, but that’s not enough reason to bet the spread. Maybe fading the Bucks at –5.5 would be all right.<br /><br />We like that 227-point total instead. The Rockets (37-36-1 Under) have the ‘under’ at 21-16 on the road this year and 10-2 during their past dozen games overall. Getting Clint Capela (plus-1.1 OBPM, plus-1.3 DBPM) back at center has helped cement Houston’s defense, and the arrival of Iman Shumpert (minus-3.4 OPBM, minus-0.6 DBPM) at the trade deadline has played a role, as well.</p><h2><strong>Fasciitis Groove Thing</strong></h2><p>Now it’s up to the Bucks (38-36 Under) to play nice. They have the ‘over’ at 19-17 in Milwaukee this year, which doesn’t help our cause. However, the Bucks are also missing several key players at just the wrong time, including guard Malcolm Brogdon (plus-1.9 OBPM, minus-0.3 DBPM), who’s out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis. The ‘under’ is 3-2 since Brogdon went on the injured list.<br /><br />Meanwhile, George Hill (minus-1.3 OBPM, plus-0.8 DBPM) has returned from a nine-game absence to soak up those backcourt minutes. Pat Connaughton (0.0 OBPM, plus-1.0 DBPM) has also seen a lot more burn this month. Sadly, Pau Gasol (minus-2.0 OBPM, plus-2.7 DBPM) won’t be part of the equation on Tuesday; he’s out with a sore left ankle. But Nikola Mirotic (plus-0.8 OBPM, plus-0.2 DBPM) won’t be playing, either, which means more minutes for Ersan Ilyasova (minus-0.7 OBPM, plus-0.2 DBPM).<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;2018-19 leaders in total charges drawn (via &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/MfhJ9t3H64\"&gt;https://t.co/MfhJ9t3H64&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;1. Ersan Ilyasova, 44&lt;br /&gt;2. Blake Griffin, 28&lt;br /&gt;3. Kemba Walker, 23&lt;br /&gt;4. Marc Gasol, 22&lt;br /&gt;5. Thaddeus Young, 22&lt;br /&gt;6. Kyle Lowry, 21&lt;br /&gt;7. P.J. Tucker, 19&lt;br /&gt;8. Montrezl Harrell, 18&lt;br /&gt;9. Tim Hardaway Jr., 18&lt;br /&gt;10. Jeremy Lin, 15 &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/LGzIWBV09w\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/LGzIWBV09w&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Alex Kennedy (@AlexKennedyNBA) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/AlexKennedyNBA/status/1106955259585417216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 16, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]<br /><br />This isn’t a back-to-back scenario for either team, so we can’t rely on anyone using Tuesday’s game as an excuse to conduct some “load management” – not that you really need an excuse these days. We’re still going to recommend a small bet only, given Milwaukee’s performance at home, but all these injuries make them more likely to <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/houston-rockets-vs-milwaukee-bucks-3569062/odds/" target="_blank">go ‘under’ this time around</a>. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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