After some good picks ran into some bad luck, I am back with two more winning NBA prop picks for a pivotal Game 4 in the Western Conference Finals.
Alternate Point Spread
If you’re like me, and you think that the Thunder’s Game 3 performance was not a fluke and sign of more things to come, you have to love the value they present as an underdog in this one. Right now their moneyline price to win this game at home at most sportsbooks is falling around +105. However, the alternate point spread is a much better way of betting this game if you think the Thunder are going to win, because you can get some much better pricing at sportsbooks like bet365.
At just Thunder -2, the price at bet365 is +120. If you move it up to -2½, it goes all the way to +135. Personally, I am sticking in at -2 (+120) for my NBA pick on the Thunder tonight, but with how many ways they can hurt the Warriors, it seems unlikely that they come out and blow this game like they did in Game 2. They still have the Thunder hometown crowd on hand tonight, and after that kind of performance, as long as they don’t relax and lose focus, the Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combo is playing too well right now to fade. Draymond Green has ben nowhere to be found in this series, and right now as good as Stephen Curry is, I’ll take Westbrook and Durant over Curry and Klay Thompson four times out of five. The Thunder are the hotter, deeper and better team right now, and after the Warriors chased history with the wins record, I think they are finally running out of steam.
My Pick: Thunder -2 +120
Best Line Offered: at bet365
Will Steven Adams Record a Double-Double?
The Thunder made a bold move in Game 3 that worked out like a charm after they were dismantled in Golden State in Game 2. After playing a big lineup down the stretch for most of the second round and in Games 1 and 2, Billy Donovan went to a smaller lineup with Kevin Durant at the four, and Serge Ibaka at center.
This did a double of things. Firstly, it opened up the Thunder’s offense a lot, as was evidenced by the more than 70 points they scored in the first half alone. The other thing it did was limit the minutes of Steven Adams. Adams was in some foul trouble as well, but moving Ibaka to center down the stretch of the second quarter and some during the third quarter really limited Adams.
If the Thunder does that again, Adams may not be as big of a factor. He still had a good game in limited minutes, but if he is around only 20 minutes again in Game 4, the likelihood of him scoring a double-double is low. Right now Bovada has his NBA odds of hitting a double-double at only -105, but the no is -125, and that seems more likely at this point in Game 4. I’m assuming the Thunder go smaller again and put their most deadly offensive lineup on the floor for Game 4, which might leave Adams to single digits in either points or rebounds tonight.
My Pick: No -125
Best Line Offered: at Bovada