Thunder vs. Mavs
The NBA Odds have the Thunder as -3 road favorites here with a total of 213 points. Last night without Russell Westbrook, the Thunder cruised to a win both SU and ATS versus the Nuggets at home, but tonight should be tougher even with Westbrook likely making his return. While he has yet to be cleared for back to backs, Westbrook has looked solid over the last few weeks, and his presence will give whoever is defending him fits.
The problem with that is Jose Calderon is questionable tonight with a head injury after being elbowed in the face against the Nets two nights ago. While he isn’t a great defender, without him the Mavs don’t have anyone else to turn to. Even leaving trying to defend Westbrook, the Mavs’ offense could take a small hit if Calderon is out.
Westbrook will be a key cog in the Thunder lineup tonight, but against a very tough Mavs team, I find the spread a wash. Dallas could very easily cover or win this game outright, and it could just as easily go the other way. That is why I am really liking the total of 213 for an over bet tonight.
Dallas is 20-15 cashing the over at home this season, and after only scoring 86 points against the Mavs at home a few weeks ago, you can bet that the Thunder will be looking to get some of that taste out of their mouths. This could easily be a first round playoff matchup in the West, and at this point in the season, this game might be a preview of what the postseason might hold for us in the West.
This season, Dallas is 6-0 cashing the over as a home underdog, and I am fully on the over tonight for my picks.
NBA Pick: OVER 213
Knicks vs. Lakers
This will be the first time in a long time that neither one of these teams are in the playoffs, and tonight they face off one last time in their shared nightmarish seasons. The NBA Odds have the Lakers as a solid +6 ½ home underdog here, with a total of 217.
The Knicks had their winning streak snapped by the Cavs of all teams recently, however going into LA, they are only a couple of games out of the playoffs despite being written off by everyone already. While the Knicks’ schedule is brutal down the stretch, they could find themselves playing for the playoffs in the final week of the season.
Tonight however against the Lakers, I can’t trust them to cover here. New York is 6-3 ATS this season as road favorites, but I think the total has a lot more value. The under has cashed in five of the last seven times these two teams have met, and at 217, this total is pretty high unless we get screwed by overtime like last night.
The under cashes even more between these teams in LA. The under has won in the last four meetings in a row between the Knicks and Lakers at the Staples Center.
NBA Pick: UNDER 217