We had a rare night last night in the NBA Picks of the day. Two pushes leave us right back where we started yesterday, and after those two ties, I am even more ready to release my NBA Picks for Tuesday. We only have two betting days left before the All Star Break, so with a seven-game slate for us tonight, let’s see if we can maximize the value we do have.
Sacramento and Cleveland might be one of the closer games of the night, and with all of the variance in the spread, I think a wager on the total might be a better way to go. The NBA Odds have the Cavs as -1 ½ favorites with a total of 204 points. These two teams are really bad matchups for one another, and with neither team being very good defensively, it looks as if 204 points is might too low for these offensive minded teams.
These two played one another earlier in the season and the Kings dominated the Cavs, 124-80. I doubt the Cavs will only score 80 points tonight against a defense that’s giving up over 105 points per game on the road. The point guards are going to be scoring at will against one another, while DeMarcus Cousins and Anderson Varejao will likely be outworking the other on the offensive end.
The over has cashed in four of Cleveland’s last six games overall, and it hasn’t been because of their offense. Cleveland is giving up 107 points per game against the Western Conference this season, and with the Kings’ at full strength again, I’m expect a game well into the 200s.
NBA Pick: OVER 204
Dallas Mavs vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The NBA Odds have the Cats as +3 home underdogs in this one, with a total of 197 points. These two teams met up with one another earlier in the season, and the Mavs overcame a double-digit deficit in the second half to come back and win 89-82. The Mavs have won something like 17 of their last 18 games against the Cats, however this is a new Charlotte team, and they are at home now. With Kemba Walker back to go along with the outstanding play of Al Jefferson, I think Charlotte is a prime value at +3.
The Bobcats are 5-3 ATS this season when playing the Western Conference at home, and even though the Mavs are the second best road ATS team in the NBA, (18-8 ATS) I think it may be making them a bit overvalued here. The Cats are one of the top five defensive teams in the NBA at home, and other than Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavs won’t have much success scoring the ball tonight. Dirk had 14 of his 25 points in the 4th quarter of their game against Charlotte back in early December, but tonight even if he goes off again, the Cats are the play.
This season when playing on 2-3 days rest, the Bobcats are a league-leading 9-3 ATS. This young team is going to thrive after a couple days in between their loss to the Spurs and this game versus Dallas. Look for Charlotte to clamp down on everyone whose name isn’t Dirk, and cover the spread for our NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Bobcats +3