After another big day on Monday, the NBA is back today with a shorter card of betting action. I had another 2-0 day yesterday afternoon, and once more, I am tailing a team that won us some cash yesterday.
Orlando Magic vs. Brooklyn Nets
The NBA Odds have the Nets as -9 ½ favorites at home in this game, despite playing yesterday afternoon. However, the game yesterday was early enough that the Nets will still have more than 24 hours before they play again tonight. Also, the game was right across the bridge, so the players likely slept in their own beds even after their “road,” game yesterday afternoon in the Garden. The total for this one is hovering around 191 ½ after opening late.
Nikola Vucevic will miss his 8th consecutive game with a concussion, and this once again leaves the Magic’s defense out to dry. Against a resurgent team like the Nets that just got Deron Williams back, it is going to be very hard for the Magic to stop the Nets this evening. With a 6’8 power forward playing center for Orlando, the Nets should roll inside tonight even without Brook Lopez. Kevin Garnett is starting to play better, and Andray Blatche has been really playing well off the bench. Both should dominate the boards tonight in Brooklyn.
The Nets are obviously much different from the team that lost to the Magic 107-86 back in early November. Sure they have lost Lopez since then, but Orlando is not a team that can beat the Nets on the perimeter. Aaron Afflalo and Tobias Harris will likely be shut down by Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce, and on the flip side, the Magic won’t be stopping anyone.
In their last ten games, the Magic have given up an average of 107 points per game, while the Nets are only giving up 95 per game in their last ten overall. While Orlando is 9-10-1 ATS on the road this season, in their last six road games, they are 0-6 ATS. Look for the bottoming to continue.
NBA Pick: Nets -9 ½
The Pelicans also played yesterday and won a tight game in Memphis, 95-92. This is a bigger win for the Pelicans than most of their current wins, because they did it without two starters, one of their backup big men, and on the road against a Memphis team that has Marc Gasol back.
Now they head home to welcome in a Kings team playing much better basketball, and the NBA Odds have the Pelicans as +1 home underdogs off the back to back, with a total of 204. If New Orleans can continue their defensive intensity tonight against the Kings, they may be a great value ATS and SU. However I think there is much more value in the total tonight.
The Pelicans are only 5-5 in total betting when playing on the second night of a back to back, however despite the .500 record, they are 2nd in point differential of 9.2 when playing with no rest. That means that when the total does go over, it does so by an average of 9.2 points, second only behind the Thunder.
The last seven times these two teams faced off against one another, the total went over, including their first meeting this season back in 2013. The over has cashed in 16 of the Kings’ last 23 games overall, and all five of the previous meetings from these two in New Orleans have gone over as well. Look for the Pelicans to play improved, but not great defense tonight. Place your money on Over 204 for your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: OVER 204