Try ‘Over’ As MKG Sits for Saturday’s Celtics-Hornets

Friday, March 22, 2019 5:51 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 22, 2019 5:51 PM UTC

The absence of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist makes the ‘over’ a viable NBA pick for Saturday’s game between the Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 21: 20-19-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 30-14 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Boston (43-29 SU, 35-36-1 ATS) at Charlotte (32-39 SU, 32-38-1 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank">Over</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=BetOnline" target="_blank">BetOnline</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569014, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,999991,169,93,180], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>You may not be aware of this, but there’s a professional basketball team in Charlotte. People don’t talk about the Hornets much, and for good reason – they’ve had three winning seasons since joining the league (as the Bobcats) in 2004, and this isn’t one of them. But the Hornets do have some value for us this Saturday when they host the Boston Celtics. Charlotte opened as 3-point home dogs on the <a href="" target="_blank">NBA odds board</a> with a total of 220.5 points, and as you can see, we’re taking the ‘over’ this time.</p><h2><strong>Charlotte Sometimes</strong></h2><p>Taking the Hornets on the spread might be tempting, given that the Celtics are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five games, but Charlotte has been struggling themselves at 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS. And the hoop geniuses at FiveThirtyEight project the Hornets as 3-point underdogs for Saturday’s matchup. So we’re definitely looking elsewhere for our <a href="" target="_blank">NBA picks</a>.<br /><br />In this case, the ‘over’ seems to work well for both clubs. It’s 40-32 on the season for Boston and 38-32-1 for Charlotte. Sadly, the home/away splits appear to mitigate that somewhat, with the Hornets driving the ‘over’ to a 19-18 record at The Hive, and the C’s making it 18-17 on the road. Better than a kick in the head, I suppose.<br /><br />Boston’s recent performance gives us hope, though. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in their last six games, including three straight on the road. And they have less stopping power now that Aron Baynes (minus-0.9 OBPM, plus-1.1 DBPM) is back on the injured list with a sprained left ankle. There’s also a chance that Gordon Hayward (minus-0.1 OBPM, plus-0.5 DBPM) will miss this game for Boston; he’s expected to return from his concussion either Saturday or on Sunday when the Celtics host the San Antonio Spurs.</p><h2>Head Injuries</h2><p>The more important injury for our purposes is on Charlotte’s side. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (minus-1.6 OBPM, plus-0.4 DBPM), one of the better defensive players in the league when healthy, is not healthy – he also has a concussion and has already been ruled out for Saturday. So have Cody Zeller (plus-0.3 OBPM, plus-1.8 DBPM) and his sore left knee. More minutes for Frank Kaminsky (plus-0.2 OBPM, minus-2.1 DBPM)? Yes please.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Frank Kaminsky on being overpaid 👀&lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Hornets&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Hornets Nation (@HornetsNationCP) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;March 14, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]<br /><br />We’re still going to recommend just a small wager, partly because the ‘under’ is 5-3 in Charlotte’s last eight games, and partly because there might not be much of a profit margin available given those home/away splits against the total. But we’re still going to put over the ‘over’ for this matchup. <a href="" target="_blank">Shop smart</a>, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
comment here