Trio of Over/Under Play's for Wednesday's NBA Picks

David Lawrence

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 1:25 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 1:25 PM UTC

This expert NBA handicapper shares statistical analysis based on how teams are developing as either offense-based or defense-based teams in this daily report on the best 'over/under' picks.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Washington Wizards
Total: 200.5
The Mavericks average 109.3 points per game, and Washington averages 98.7 points per game. Purely by the numbers, it seems that the NBA odds have been set a bit low. However, Dallas just got done with a game in which it rolled over the Charlotte Hornets, 107-80. Dallas led by a huge margin in the middle of the game and basically coasted home. You could say that since the game was easy for Dallas, the Mavericks will be mentally renewed and not physically taxed when they go into Washington to play the Wizards. However, an easy game one night could very realistically be followed by a tougher game, one in which the other team puts up a very strong fight. Washington looks like a team that could be just such a force. The Wizards have some size in the post in Nene Hilario and Marcin Gortat. They also have a savvy veteran in Paul Pierce who knows how to play sound position defense. This game could go over, but it feels as though it will be played in the 90s and stay under the number.

Free NBA Pick: Under at 5Dimes

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
This game definitely seems like an under play. Cleveland is averaging just over 106 points per game, while San Antonio is averaging 95. San Antonio, though, is the slightly better team, at least over the past week. The Spurs have shown signs of rounding into form and playing the game the way they want to play it. Cleveland remains the team that has been struggling to a greater degree. The Cavaliers were shocked by the Denver Nuggets at home on Monday night, an indication of the depth of Cleveland’s persistent problems. The Cavaliers are a long-term project, while the Spurs seem to be more in control of themselves right now. Cleveland’s scoring average has been helped by this past Saturday’s 127-point showing against the Atlanta Hawks. Most nights, though, the Cavs’ offense doesn’t flow very well, and it shouldn’t against the Spurs. San Antonio should create a game in which the defenses have more to say about the outcome. For that reason we are looking to add the 'Under' to our NBA picks for this matchup.

Free NBA Pick: Under at Bodog

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Toronto Raptors
This is an under as well. Memphis averages 98 points per game, Toronto 106. However, the scoring averages are just part of the story. The Grizzlies have the best defense in the league, giving up just over 91 points. Toronto has a top-nine defense, giving up 96.4 points per game. It’s not just the offenses which are part of the story. The defenses are so good that this game can finish in the mid-90s or lower, and that’s a score which would go under the total.

Free NBA Pick: Under at The Greek

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