Trailblazers to Take Advantage of Nuggets' Weak Defense, Bet 'Over' as the NBA Pick

Charles Stark

Monday, November 9, 2015 11:26 AM GMT

At first glance the total between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Denver Nuggets looks quite high. Let's break down the numbers to see if this is a bet worth of your NBA picks.

NBA odds
NBA oddsmakers have this total set at 207.5 across the board. Some good odds at lower juice would be where you can get over this total at -105, which is at Pinnacle Sports. For one of my NBA picks today, I will be backing over the total with Portland and Denver.

 

Portland Trailblazers
Portland is averaging 103.8 points per game, 46.8% shooting from the field, and 37.4% shooting from distance. Damian Lillard has been lighting it up and would get more notoriety if not for three other guards in the West named Westbrook, Paul, and Curry. Along with C.J. McCollum that are one of the best backcourts in the league and are averaging together almost 50 points a game. So far this season, Portland has been shooting the ball very well percentage wise and should continue to roll against the Nuggets even coming off a back to back.

Defensively, the Trailblazers are allowing 99 points per game, 42.2% shooting from the field, and 29.3% from beyond the arc. They have been respectable on this end of the floor, but they do like it for teams to push tempo with them a bit, allowing opponents an average over 85 shots per game. They have also been formidable in limiting extra passes allowing just 17 assists per game which ranks third in the NBA.

 

Denver Nuggets
Denver is averaging 97.3 points per game, shooting 41.6% from the field, and 33.1% from beyond the arc. It has been nice to see the resurgence of Danilo Gallinari and I think Emmanuel Mudiay is going to be a proficient point guard in a year or two, but overall they have struggled. They haven't done anything particularly well on offense, but they are catching Portland at a time where they might not be as sharp defensively after playing just last night. As well, the Nuggets have had two days off so they should come in rested and ready to get up and down the floor.

Defensively, the Nuggets are allowing 103.5 points per game, 44% shooting from the field, and 36.1% from distance. Like their offense, they have not done anything particularly well on this side of the ball. They have been one of the worst teams in the league in defending the perimeter, and tonight against Portland, one of the best perimeter teams statistically, they will most likely give up their fair share.

For one of your NBA picks, I suggest taking over the total in this matchup. The line looks a little bit high at first glance, but after breaking down some numbers and matchups, there should be a lot of up and down action tonight in Denver. Expect the rested Nuggets to push the pace as much as possible and for the sharp shooting Trailblazers to run right with them.

NBA Free Pick: Over 208½

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882562, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]