Toronto Raptors to Rebound is Your NBA Pick in Dallas

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, February 24, 2015 6:45 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.

 



We like the road underdogs on the second of a back-to-back to rebound Tuesday night when those Toronto Raptors (37-19, 16-10 away) pay a visit to the Dallas Mavericks (38-20, 19-9 home) at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX at 8:35 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Southwest.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Toronto as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +4½ with odds of -107.


Still Second Seeds in Eastern Conference
The Raptors blew a 12-point halftime lead to a Pelicans’ team playing without both Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson Monday, as a 33-23 New Orleans edge in the fourth quarter proved decisive in a 100-97 Toronto loss, the Raptors’ second straight defeat. Still, Toronto is on its way to an Atlantic Division title currently leading the second place Nets by 13 games, and the Raps are the second seeds in the Eastern Conference seven games behind Atlanta.

Dallas has a similar record to 37-19 Toronto at 38-20, but since the Mavs play in the tougher Western Conference, they are only the fifth seeds right now and in fact are only third in their own Southwest Division, trailing first place Memphis by 4½ games and second place Houston by one game. The latter is significant because the Rockets are a three-seed right now, so if the Mavericks pass them, Dallas would have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The Mavericks come in having been the winning NBA picks in their last two games, most recently beating the Charlotte Hornets here at home 92-81 on Sunday.


Four-Game Win Streak vs. Good Teams before Last Two Losses
Prior to the current two-game losing streak, the Raptors had won four straight wrapped around the All-Star break and all vs. good competition too, which has been a knock against a Toronto team this season that has feasted on the worst division in the NBA in the Atlantic, where the second place Nets are only 23-31. In fact the Raptors’ first game after the All-Star break was one of their best all year as they routed to top seeded Hawks 105-80 on the road in Atlanta!

That was after winning their last three games before the All-Star break over the Los Angeles Clippers, the defending NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs and the Washington Wizards, although all those wins came at home.

Then came a loss at Houston to the Rockets on Saturday, but in hindsight that loss may have been expected coming on the heels of the statement win in Atlanta the previous night. Then last night the Raptors may have taken their foot off the gas too soon with a big lead over a depleted team. Toronto led that game until the Pelicans got their first lead with 1:55 left to go, and the Pelicans received unexpected big games from the likes of Luke Babbitt and Alexis Ajinca.

Look for a more focused effort from start to finish from Toronto this time around.


No Chandler Parsons for Dallas
The Mavericks lost their first game after the break to the Thunder in Oklahoma City before beating Houston and Charlotte the last two games, but they were without Chandler Parsons while beating the Hornets Sunday as he has a sprain and a bone bruise on his left ankle and he is expected to also miss at least this game and Wednesday’s contest in Atlanta.

Yes the Mavericks got by without him last game, but that was vs. a 22-32 team while they are now facing one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, so the stat-filling Parsons and his 15.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals per game figure to be missed much more here.

The aging Richard Jefferson started in Parsons’ stead on Sunday and he even turned back the clock with a double-double, posting 10 points and 10 rebounds. Still, we simply do not trust Jefferson to be that solid in back-to-back games at this stage of his career after mostly riding the bench all year prior to last game.


Don’t Mind the Back-to-Back
Finally, while playing the second of a back-to-back would be a concern for most teams, it is not so much for the Raptors as they are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times that they have played with no rest. That streak stood at 9-1 ATS before the loss in Houston Saturday.

We look for Toronto to now get back to its back-to-back success, especially after blowing that lead in New Orleans last night, so take the points with the Raptors in Dallas on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Raptors +4½ (-107)