It’s the final day of the NBA regular season, and with most matchups locked up, there are only a few games of significance tonight. However, there is a lot of player prop value from Bovada, and I am back with my two best player props picks for tonight’s slate of NBA odds.
Draymond Green O/U 29.5 points, rebounds and assists
There have been many key moments in the Warriors season that has brought them one win away from breaking one of the most unbreakable records in sports. Draymond Green has been a big reason for that. He has reportedly been one of the key engines keeping this team focused and hungry to break the Bulls record, and tonight against a bange dup and potentially resting Grizzlies team, I expect Green to have a huge game.
Not only is the motivation factor on Golden State’s side, the matchup factor is there for Green as well. The Grizzlies have been the worst team at defending power forwards over the last three weeks, giving up an average of 27 points and 14 rebounds per 48 minutes. If Green plays his normal 35 minutes tonight, I think it’s safe to assume Green has a nice floor of about 18-19 points and 9 or 10 rebounds.
That is almost enough to cash the over on this one even without assists, but Green is averaging close to eight assists per game this season, and Green has 30 games of at least nine or more assists. Green Over 29.5 at -115 NBA odds is my best bet on props for your NBA picks tonight.
My Pick: OVER 29.5 (-115)
Derrick Favors O/U 24 points and rebounds
The big factor in this one is that Rudy Gobert will be out, which gives Favors a lot more room to operate, and a lot more rebounds to grab. Sure, the Jazz may be knocked out of the playoffs by the time this game starts, but they could still play their guys normal minutes trying to beat Kobe Bryant in his last game!
The Lakers give up about 21 points and 16 rebounds per 48 minutes to centers this season, and assuming Favors starts there, I like the over on this number as well. Favors has put up some pretty pedestrian numbers recently, but in the 11 games that Gobert misses and Favors was still healthy earlier this season, the Jazz big man averaged 17 points and nearly nine rebounds per game. If we see the Jazz motivated and playing their guys hard no matter the outcome of the Kings and Rockets game, Favors could easily get above the 24 points and rebounds mark at -115 at Bovada.
This season when Gobert is off the court, Favors is averaging 1.11 points per play, and he owns a Usage Rate of over 24 percent. He also owns a 55.2 True Shooting Percentage when Gobert is off the court. That should be more than enough against even a motivated Lakers team tonight. Make sure you double check his status before game time though!
My Pick: OVER 24 (-115)