You heard it first on the NBA Odd Couple show, and now it’s time for my three best player prop picks for a stacked card of props on Wednesday. All of these NBA Odds are courtesy of Bovada sportsbook!
Kemba Walker O/U 32.5 Points, rebounds and assists
Speaking of great values, Kemba Walker may outperform Wall and has a lower over/under for the same prop at 32.5. Even though college basketball season has just ended, Walker owns Madison Square Garden. If you take away his poor game against New York in November, in his last two games against the Knicks, Walker is averaging 29 points per game. If Walker can just get to 25 points tonight, he is going to sky over the 32.5 number from Bovada. His game last night is likely holding his odds down this evening.
The Knicks rank 17th against point guards this season, but with Nicolas Batum potentially out again tonight, Walker might have to take on a larger scoring role. His Usage Rate this season when Batum is off the court is nearly 30 percent. Of course, he also loves playing the Knicks.
Throughout his career, Walker is averaging 19.5 points per game in 16 games against the Knicks. That includes games early in his career when he wasn’t even starting. Needless to say, Bovada has this line way too low on their NBA odds board, and I am hammering it tonight.
NBA Pick: OVER 32.5 (-115)
John Wall O/U 36 Points, rebounds and assists
The Wizards still have a fighting chance at the playoffs, but tonight is a must win or else they are done for. However, the good news is John Wall is heading into Brooklyn, and the Nets are basically starting a D-League roster as they tank to nowhere. This is great news for Wall, who has crushed the Nets in recent games this season. In his last matchup against then, Wall finished with 22 points, 13 assists and four rebounds, which would easily cash the over for his prop of 36 total points, rebounds and assists tonight.
I think Wall can even outdo his previous game against the Nets. The daily fantasy community takes a lot of betting stats and lines to incorporate into their game, but the same is not done a lot in the betting community. The daily fantasy sites have a lot of great info for betting, and defense versus position is one of them.
The Nets rank 23rd against points guards this season, as they are giving up an average of 22.3 points, 8.7 assists and 5.3 rebounds per 48 minutes to point guards. Assuming the Nets keep this one close enough for Wall to play his normal 38-40 minutes; that means we can expect Wall to have a floor of about 30 points, rebounds and assists tonight. However, Wall Is not your average point guard, so look for him to get closer to his previous performance against the Nets. Wall is averaging 12.2 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game in his last 11 games, so if he can keep those numbers alive against a bad Nets defense, the over should be a great value for your NBA picks tonight.
NBA Pick: OVER 36 (-115)
Dirk Nowitzki O/U 1 ½ Made Three Pointers
In the month of March, Dirk Nowitzki had been on a tear, and the old man was dominating opposing defenses. However, the last four or five games he has fallen back down to earth, but tonight against the Rockets he could easily break back out of his slump. His NBA Odds for three-pointers made are way too low tonight, and against a team like the Rockets, who give up the second-most three-pointers in the league, Dirk is due.
The Rockets give up an average of 9.7 three-pointers per game, and their opponents are shooting 36.3 percent from beyond the arc this season. While Nowitzki hasn’t been shooting the three very well recently, in his last three games he has attempted 19 three-pointers. If he takes six or seven threes tonight, I’m pretty sure he can knock down two of them against the Rockets, who rank as the second-worst team at defending power forwards this season. In his last game against Houston, Dirk made four threes.
NBA Pick: OVER 1 ½ (-130)