Mavs vs. Spurs Game 5
This series has been far more competitive than most people saw in the beginning, and now with Tony Parker banged up, the Spurs face a tough task of beating the Mavs with their best player not 100%. The NBA Odds seems to think Parker will be better tonight than he was in Game 4, because they have San Antonio as a -6 ½ favorite in this game, with a total of 198 points.
Reports from San Antonio claim that Parker suffered a grade one sprain of his ankle, and even though that is considered the mildest of sprains, he still was seen limping some, and was not great in the second half of Game 4. However assuming their wasn’t too much swelling, Parker should be good to go for tonight.
Even if plays and isn’t as effective, the Spurs will employ Manu Ginobli or even Patty Mills to run the offense some, and I don’t see it burdening the Spurs’ offense too much, especially at home. The last game of this series was somewhat of an anomaly, and I don’t see that low of a score again.
In fact at 198, the total has been overcorrected way too much by the sportsbooks, and it’s leading to the over looking valuable. Even though it didn’t cash in Game 4, the over has cashed in two of the last three games of this series, and dating back to the regular season, these two have cashed the over against one another in five of their last seven meetings. Take the over for your nba picks.
My Pick: OVER 198
Blazers vs. Rockets
Everyone around the league is quickly revaluating the Blazers, because it appears that they are in fact legit. However tonight in this close out game in Houston, the NBA Odds have the Blazers as +5 ½ road underdogs, with a total of 213 ½. As tempting as it is to take points with the Blazers, I think a more valuable wager is on the total of 213 ½.
Even though this is an elimination game and totals are usually lower in these instances, this total is sitting at 213 ½, which is lower than any total so far through four games of this series. In fact in their last 10 to 12 meetings against one another, the total has gone over.
A big reason for that has been the difficulty Houston has trying to stop the Blazers in general. Even with this being an elimination game, I don’t see the Rockets suddenly solving the Blazers on defense. If you count their regular season games against the Blazers along with the four postseason contests, the Blazers are averaging 116 points per game against the Rockets. When they attempt to double team LaMarcus Aldridge, the Blazers kill them in other areas. Houston’s offense will take care of business at home I have no doubt, and a big win for them here is not out of reach by any means. However I think this means that the total of 213 ½ is once again too low. With how many times the over has cashed between these two, I am following to trends; hopefully to the bank.
My Pick: OVER 213 ½