Nets vs. Heat Game 1
It’s widely publicized that the Nets have not lost to the Heat in four regular season tries, but we finally get to see them hook up in the second round of the playoffs. The NBA Odds are solidly in favor of the Heat in Game 1 at -7, with a total of 191 ½. Even though the Heat are both 0-4 SU and ATS versus Brooklyn this year, as we have seen in the past with this team, regular season success against the Heat means very little.
Much like in 2011 when the lockout shortened the season to 66 games. The Bulls and Heat only played twice in the regular season, but Chicago won both. However when they met in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bulls captured Game 1, but lost four in a row after that. This Nets team is not as good as Chicago was with an MVP Derrick Rose. Even thgouh the Heat are more vulnerable now than they were then, I just don’t think the NBA Odds are laying enough points tonight.
The Nets are going to be tired off of their seven games series, while the Heat will be rested and ready to start their revenge on the Nets after over a week off. In the Big Three era, the Heat are 30-20 ATS in the playoffs, and it would not surprise me to see a quick series where Miami moves onto the Eastern Conference Finals for yet another year.
I do think Brooklyn will at least makes a series out of it, but for Game 1 in Miami, I don’t think they have enough to come in a knock out Miami. They could win a game in South Beach, however it might be more wise to fade them here, in order to get some better value in Game 2 after what should be a pretty good win for the Heat in Game 1.
My Pick: Heat -7
Blazers vs. Spurs Game 1
If you read my series article, you’ll know I’m pretty bullish on the Blazers in this series. Even though I do think taking points with Portland might be a solid move tonight, I see a much better play in the total. The NBA Odds have the Blazers as +6 ½ underdogs on the road, with a total of 205 ½.
Even though the total split during their four games against one another in the regular season, the Spurs and Blazers are not great matchups for one another. Portland presents a lot of problems for the Spurs’ defense, while San Antonio’s depth and precession has given the Blazers some trouble. This could lead to a flurry of offense much like what we saw in the two Game 1’s last night.
The Blazers have cashed the under in their last two games, but the over cashed seven times in a row before those last two dating back to the regular season. The Spurs on the other hand have cashed the over in five of their last six games this postseason, and their defense started to look a little worn down during the Mavs series.
At 205 ½ points, this total is a bit too low, and I’m on the over because of it.
My Pick: OVER 205 ½