Kyle Lowry has been the true leader of the Toronto Raptors and is the face of the franchise. Where will Lowry play next and do the NBA odds properly reflect his most likely destination? Let’s take a look at the NBA odds on Lowry’s destination.
- Raptors -125
- Heat +300
- 76ers +300
- Clippers +550
- Lakers +900
Here are the current numbers
- Toronto Raptors +160
- Miami Heat +250
- New York Knicks +550
- Philadelphia 76ers +400
- Los Angeles Lakers +450
- Los Angeles Clippers +900
Quite the changes as Toronto has gone to plus money, the Sixers have been seen as less likely, the Heat have been seen as more likely, the Knicks have entered the equation and the Lakers and Clippers have rightfully switched their positions.
Toronto Raptors -125 to +160
At -125, Bovada had given an implied probability of Lowry returning to Toronto at 55%. This new number reflects an implied probability of 38.5%. Toronto landed the 4th pick in this year’s draft making it more likely that the Raptors move on from Lowry and go young. Adding Jalen Suggs seems likely and moving Lowry to give Suggs room to grow makes sense. Yet Lowry could also be a great mentor, which is why the NBA odds still have Lowry as the favorite.
Very few players play their whole career in one city, and with the money made and his accomplishments, this could mean something to Lowry. Lowry will always be beloved in Toronto regardless, and he might want to finish his career with the team he has always played for. Toronto is a well-run organization. They have one of the top GMs in the league, Masai Ujiri.
They have one of the best coaches in the league in Nick Nurse. In Toronto, he will be surrounded by young talent. Toronto had the toughest situation of all teams this season, as they were forced to relocate to Tampa Bay due to the pandemic. Toronto has the number 4 pick in this year’s draft and will be bringing in a bright young star, not to mention the returning pieces of the team.
Although Toronto failed to make the playoffs this year, it is quite plausible that they could easily return to their championship aspirations by next year if Lowry returns. I believe the NBA odds are correct in this case and 38% seems about right. There is no value in this bet.
Miami Heat +300 to +250
A well-run rival of the Raptors, the Heat boasts all of the same qualities except for the continuity. The Heat are an excellent run organization under president Pat Riley and Eric Spoelstra who, alongside Nick Nurse, is a bonafide top coach in the league. You have a culture of team building and preparedness that Lowry would fit right into. Lowry is a friend of Jimmy Butler, which would be intriguing for him to play with his good buddy and would instantly bring the 2020 finalist back into contention.
I believe Miami should prefer Lowry over the oft-injured Victor Oladipo if Lowry were willing to come. With Oladipo being younger, the Heat might choose to go in that direction. The +300 gave us an implied probability of 25%. The +250 is 28.6% and is based on the Raptors’ draft position making it more likely for them to move on. This bet does not have value because I believe that it is less likely that Lowry will go there.
Philadelphia 76ers +300 to +400
This is an intriguing option. Lowry is from Philadelphia, and would instantly fit in and provide everything that this team needs. Fitting Lowry into the cap would obviously be an issue so this would have to be a sign and trade, but Philadelphia definitely has the assets if Lowry indicates he would like to be home.
Lowry can provide shooting, defense, and a point guard who can lead the teams through the tough stretches in the playoffs. Lowry has always been a dogged defender and would fit in well in the city would fit in his hometown of Philadelphia. At the same price as Miami, this presents much better value for the speculative bettor. The original line’s implied probability was 25% and now it is 20%.
Clippers +550 to +900
I would be absolutely shocked if he ended up in Los Angeles. I just don’t see how the Clippers could find the assets to make a sign and trade with Toronto enticing and they have no way to fit Lowry into their cap space without jettisoning a major portion of their role players on the roster. With 2 ball-dominant wings, I don’t necessarily see how Lowry helps this team like he would with Toronto, Miami, or Philadelphia.
Crazy things have happened in the NBA however. For example, I didn’t see Chris Paul going to the Phoenix Suns. Yet in this case, I do not believe this is a good bet even at an 18% possibility to hit the break-even point. I don’t think there’s any value in this play.
Los Angeles Lakers +900 to +450
The Lakers are another team that is deprived of assets after acquiring superstar, Anthony Davis. Lowry fits much better on this Los Angeles Lakers roster, but once again I fail to see how the Lakers can find the assets to make an enticing sign and trade proposal. This line feels like it’s being put here because they know the legion of Lakers fans and their penchant for photoshopping every free agent into a Lakers jersey can allow them to take some dead money in a speculative market.
The +450 is much less lucrative to the true odds and I do not believe that even if he goes to the Lakers you made a good bet. At +900 it was about a 10% possibility. Now it is an 18.2% possibility, which is simply not enough return.
New York Knicks +550
The Knicks have finally broken through to the playoffs and need stronger guard play. Lowry would fit in great as he can create his own shot and defend. The current Knicks guards can each do one but they have very few 2-way players like Lowry. Lowry would be an immediate upgrade and Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau would love Lowry’s inspired playing style. The Knicks have the assets to either sign and trade for Lowry and his fit is fantastic with this team. At +550 or 15.4%, this is actually an intriguing development and a number to keep an eye on.
The only wagers I would consider placing on this would be Toronto, New York, or Philadelphia. While I believe Toronto is likely, and the Knicks number has a slight value, Philadelphia provides the bettor the most value. The Toronto number is correct. The value is on Lowry finally coming home to Philadelphia. This is the only team where the bookmakers at Bovada have mispriced the NBA odds and given bettors an advantage. Therefore if you do not believe that Lowry will return to Toronto, the smart play to make is Philadelphia +400.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.