Top Duo of NBA Picks ATS to Boost Tuesday Night's Profits

Jason Lake

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 11:47 AM GMT

Things are getting a bit hectic on the NBA odds scene. Who'll hit a buzzer-beating bank shot this Tuesday? Which guys are even playing? Let's see what we can sort out.

Jason’s record as of May 11: 75-77-5 ATS, 13-18 Totals, plus-0.15 units ML, 6-2 Series (plus-4.0 units)


If you're not enjoying the 2015 NBA playoffs so far, it's either because you're not into basketball, or you've had some bad luck with your NBA picks. We can't help you with the first part of that equation, but let's see what we can do about the second part. We've got two very interesting second-round games coming up Tuesday night, starting off with what's turned into an insane series between the two preseason favorites in the Eastern Conference.

 

Chicago vs. Cleveland (7:00 p.m. ET, TNT)
As Ed Whalen used to say, this is a ring-a-ding-dong dandy. We're all knotted up at two apiece after Derrick Rose and LeBron James took turns banking in game-winning shots. But the Bulls have the 3-1 ATS edge in this Eastern semi; they're the series underdogs, even though Kevin Love (18.8 PER) is out for the duration with a separated shoulder.

Chicago is also the underdog in Game 5. As we go to press, Tuesday's NBA odds board has the Bulls getting 5.5 points on the road, which again shows how much the marketplace prefers the Cavs. We're pretty close to auto-betting the Bulls in this situation, but there's a wrinkle – there's always a wrinkle. In this case, it's Pau Gasol (22.7 PER), who missed Game 4 with a strained left hamstring and remains questionable to play Tuesday after skipping practice Monday.

We're not too worried. Chicago (+3 at home) got the cover anyway in Sunday's 86-84 loss, and besides, it's not just Gasol who's having issues. James (25.9 PER) twisted his ankle in Game 4 and says he's getting “round the clock treatment” to be ready for Game 5. James didn't leave the game on Sunday, but he's not going to be 100 percent for Tuesday, no matter how ridiculously awesome he is at basketball. Let's keep pounding that chicken.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Bulls at The Greek

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L.A. Clippers vs. Houston (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
I'm pretty sure this series exists only to make everyone here at the home office look silly. It isn't so much the fact that the Clippers are up 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS; it's more the way that they've done it. Chris Paul (26.0 PER) missed the first two games with a hamstring injury, but Austin Rivers (10.6 PER) of all people has stepped up, increasing his playoff PER all the way to 15.7. That's better than league average.

That's also what the Clippers have been missing ever since the days of Darren Collison and Eric Bledsoe. We're always harping about how important a quality back-up point guard is when you're making your NBA picks. Well, here's further “proof” about that. In theory, Rivers is likely to regress to the mean, but maybe this is the new normal. And it no doubt makes the Rockets wish they still had Patrick Beverley (11.3 PER, plus-0.3 DBPM) out there playing some perimeter defense.

We've got a bigger problem with the Rockets, though: the Hack-a-Shaq. Houston has been intentionally fouling DeAndre Jordan (21.0 PER) at just about every opportunity, and while Jordan is only hitting 42.2 percent from the charity stripe in these playoffs, we can't help but think this tactic would be better used in moderation. In poker speak, the Rockets are allowing the Clippers to “realize their equity” by putting Jordan on the line in situations where playing defense might lead to fewer points in the long run – like when Blake Griffin (22.8 PER) is on the bench. Houston's got a bright front office, so maybe we're being overly skeptical. But we're going to ride the hot hand anyway.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Clippers at Bookmaker

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