Top 5 ‘Over’ Teams: Wizards and Spurs Lead The Way

Monday, February 18, 2019 6:47 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 18, 2019 6:47 PM UTC

The Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs have made the "over" a very tasty NBA pick – and they’ve done it in two entirely different ways.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record: 12-11 ATS, 0-2 ML (minus-4.35 units), 17-7 Totals

It’s been nearly four months since the 2018-19 NBA regular season got underway. Remember those salad days, when the ‘over’ was destroying the NBA odds while everyone got used to the new 14-second inbound rule? The "over" has settled down somewhat since then; it’s at 437-423-6 (50.8 percent) coming out of the All-Star break. But these five teams have all made a mint cashing in the "over" thus far. Can they keep it up?

1. Washington Wizards (36-22)

This is a lost season for the Wizards without John Wall, who wasn’t healthy to begin with, and is now out for the year with a ruptured Achilles. But that lets Bradley Beal (plus-3.2 OBPM, minus-1.1 DBPM) do his thing. With Beal at the controls, the Wiz have pace and scoring punch, and they’re also No. 26 in the league at 110.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. The "over" should be a healthy NBA pick in D.C. going forward.

2. San Antonio Spurs (36-22-1)

These are not your older brother’s Spurs. They’re only No. 22 in defense (109.3 points/100), but they’re third in scoring (111.3 points/100), something of a surprise considering they’ve got two midrange specialists in LaMarcus Aldridge (plus-1.2 OBPM, plus-0.1 DBPM) and DeMar DeRozan (minus-0.2 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM) working in a slow offense. It helps that Davis Bertans (plus-2.7 OBPM, minus-0.3 DBPM) leads the league in 3-point shooting at 47.6 percent.

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When you won the three-point contest but Davis Bertans wasn’t even invited pic.twitter.com/85xt614RJm

— David McGinnis (@dav_mcg) February 17, 2019
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3. Boston Celtics (34-24)

How the heck is Boston on this list? They’re tied for fourth in defensive efficiency (103.6/100), with an offense that works at a medium pace. But the Celtics are also sixth in scoring (110.8/100), and they’re especially potent when Kyrie Irving (plus-6.6 OBPM, plus-0.3 DBPM) is on the court. The ‘under’ is 6-5 in the 11 games Irving has missed thus far.

4. Houston Rockets (32-24-1)

It’s the usual story in Houston: They’re second in offense (111.8/100) and No. 23 in defense (109.6/100). But this half-court, iso-ball nonsense with James Harden (plus-11.2 OBPM, plus-0.6 DBPM) has its limitations. The Rockets are running at a glacial pace, and they’re near the bottom of the league in field-goal attempts. Good thing they picked up Austin Rivers (minus-0.6 OBPM, minus-2.3 DBPM) to shore up their bench – good thing for the "over" at least.

5. Atlanta Hawks (32-26)

Finally, a tanking team on this list. The Hawks are very bad on both sides of the ball, but they also run the fastest offense in the league, getting in 106.4 possessions per game. Trae Young (0.0 OBPM, minus-3.0 DBPM) and John Collins (plus-2.9 OBPM, minus-1.6 DBPM) are driving this bus; it’s a shame they let Jeremy Lin (plus-0.3 OBPM, minus-2.5 DBPM) go, but that’s the NBA for you. Let’s see how Atlanta muffs their lottery pick this time.

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