Timberwolves vs. Thunder NBA Picks: Take Oklahoma City With Confidence

Swinging Johnson

Friday, January 15, 2016 5:25 PM GMT

The Thunder is rolling, winning four of their last five, while the T-Wolves are struggling mightily dropping their last eight games. The NBA odds makers are hanging Oklahoma City as big favorites.

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NBA Pick: Thunder -13 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Minnesota Timberwolves (12-28 SU, 16-23 ATS)
Minnesota is in the midst of a shame spiral losing their eight games but they have shown signs of life in their last two covering the NBA odds against the Thunder on Tuesday night and then losing 107-104 against the Rockets in Houston on Wednesday night as 7 ½ point road dogs. Veteran Kevin Garnett was a spectator in their last outing against the Rockets after he played the night before against the Thunder. Center Nikola Pekovic missed the first 35 games after recovering from surgery for an Achilles tear and had eight points and five rebounds in his fourth game back.

As poor as the Timberwolves record is it should be noted that those who include them in their NBA picks when the team is on the road have fared quite well. Minnesota is 7-11 straight up on the highway but a money-making 12-6 ATS in those road games. The common perception is that the Wolves are so bad that their hosts should have no problem covering whatever impost is hung by the oddsmakers. In addition, Minnesota has two first overall picks in the draft in Anthony Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns that have come up big this season and are leading the team in minutes and points.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (28-12 SU, 15-24)
Kevin Durant dropped 29 points on the Mavericks and teammate Russell Westbrook got the hook as the Thunder crushed the Mavs on Wednesday night by the score of 108-89. Westbrook was given the boot after picking up his second technical in the second quarter. But his All-Star absence didn’t hinder the Thunder from dominating the Mavericks as Serge Ibaka chipped in 20 and Dion waiters netted 18. Oklahoma City easily covered the number as 12 ½ point hoem chalk.

The Thunder is scoring points in bunches averaging 108.7 points per game trailing only Golden State. They are monsters on the glass as well averaging 47.3 boards per game behind only the Chicago Bulls. Defensively they are in the middle of the NBA pack allowing 100.8 points per game. But defense is not how this team wins games as they have gone above the century mark for the 10th consecutive game in their win over the Mavs.

 

Betting Analysis
The NBA odds makers opened this one up as Oklahoma City -14 ½ and as of this writing that number has dropped to as low as 13 in some spots indicating that the money is being bet on the underdog in this matchup. That may be a result of the T-Wolves relatively strong performance on Tuesday night when they battled the Thunder on their home court to a 101-96 defeat as 10 ½ point home underdogs.

But this game is in the Thunderdome and the last time these teams met in OKC the point differential was a bit different. Kevin Durant’s boys rolled to a 113-99 victory in March of last year and covered the 10-point impost. In addition the Thunder will have game tape of Tuesday’s lackluster performance and should improve in this one markedly. In addition, Russell Westbrook essentially got the night off when he was tossed from Wednesday’s contest. He should be well rested and ready to roll tonight.

In another interesting betting trend the T-Wolves are 4-14 ATS when allowing over 105 points or more in the previous game, which of course they did in their 107-104 loss to the Rockets. As square a play as it may seem I believe the Thunder will have little problem with the Wolves tonight which is why we will hop aboard the square train and bet the home double digit chalk.