Tight Lines for Heat-Sixers ... but Value Is on Total

heat 76ers hoops

Jason Lake

Thursday, February 1, 2018 9:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018 9:39 PM UTC

The NBA odds for Friday’s game between the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers are right on the nose. But there might be some betting value on the UNDER by tipoff.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ersFree NBA Pick: Under 206Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Something very rare and precious is about to happen: an NBA game with no major injuries of note. Of course, there are multiple missing players for Friday’s matchup (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) between the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers, but no one with any impact on the NBA oddsboard, where Philadelphia has quickly moved to –4.5 after opening at –3.5.

From a betting perspective, all this good health is both a blessing and a curse. It makes projecting Friday’s result a lot easier, but at the same time, the odds are more likely to be tight as a drum. Indeed, FiveThirtyEight has the Sixers projected as a 4.5-point favorite, winning 67 percent of the time – the same win probability that ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is spitting out. Ai ya.

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When birds mess up my car,I eat a plate of scrambled eggs on my front porch just to let them know what Im capable of..so they know its real

— Hassan Whiteside (@youngwhiteside) March 22, 2012

Miami Vise

We can’t even use the all-important rest factor to help us with our NBA picks. Both teams played Monday, then they played Wednesday before traveling Thursday. The Sixers are heading home from Brooklyn, where they lost 116-108 to the Nets (+7.5). The Heat were in Cleveland, where they nearly beat the wayward Cavaliers (–2.5) before falling 91-89.

Good thing there’s always the total. The over/under for Friday’s game is 206 points at press time, down from 207 at the open. Miami has the best UNDER record in the Eastern Conference at 32-19, including 17-10 on the road; Philadelphia has the OVER at 26-22 on the season, but only 10-11 at home and 10-13 after a loss. Could be worth a spin.

The Heat make this possible by having the NBA’s No. 26-ranked offense according to efficiency, scoring 102.8 points per 100 possessions. They’re also tied at No. 6 with the Golden State Warriors on defense at 103.8 points allowed/100, just behind No. 5 Philadelphia at 103.5. Each of the last five games has gone UNDER for the Heat. That’s what happens when you have guys like Hassan Whiteside (plus-2.0 DBPM), Bam Adebayo (plus-2.4 DBPM), Justise Winslow (plus-1.9 DBPM) and our main man James Johnson (plus-1.8 DBPM) in the frontcourt. Let’s put a small sum on the UNDER before it gets any lower, and may the sphere be with you.

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