Tonight we only have two games on the schedule, so to extract as much value as we can, let’s parlay together my two picks tonight in order to increase our potential earnings, and hopefully our bankroll heading into ball night tomorrow evening.
The Clippers played last night in Minnesota and ended up getting the win 102-98. It was a hard-fought game for LA, and things don’t get any easier this evening as they head into Oklahoma City to play the Thunder. These two have already met once this season, and the Clippers bested OKC in LA. Now in OKC, the Thunder come in as -5 ½ favorites with a total of 210 ½. While the spread is somewhat inviting, I think the total has the value here, but it’s not where you think.
Normally, teams coming off of a back to back will have worse defense than the night before, but for these two teams, I think the opposite will happen. LA’s defense hasn’t been much better to start the season by the numbers, but it looks better with the coaching of Doc Rivers. I expect LA to come out tonight and play solid enough defense to keep the Thunder from running away here, and I also expect the same defensive intensity from the Thunder.
While both of these teams are giving up over 102 points per game on average to start the season, those numbers are somewhat misleading. Last season both of these teams were solid defensively, and I think that is being overlooked here. Also I think the sportsbooks are putting too much stock in the game these two teams played a week ago in LA. The under has cashed in four of LA’s last five road games, and for the Thunder, the under has gone 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Take the under tonight, as 210.5 points is just a few too many.
Chicago is riding a five game SU winning streak after a rough start to their season, and now they are -1 road favorites against the Nuggets in the NBA Odds. The Bulls will be without their starting shooting guard for this game and a couple more weeks, as Jimmy Butler sustained a turf toe injury. Without him, the Bulls are without one of their main defensive guys, but luckily at least for this game is the Nuggets don’t have much at shooting guard to worry about.
That is one of the reasons I like the Bulls here. The Nuggets are scoring well this season, but they are once again giving up a ton of points. The Bulls on the other hand are also scoring well, but they are also only giving up only 89 points per game. Derrick Rose should own the battle with Ty Lawson tonight, and even if he doesn’t the Bulls have enough on both ends of the floor to win this game in a variety of ways.
The Bulls are 4-3-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Nuggets, while Denver is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Don’t expect more than mid 90s in scoring for Denver against Chicago’s defense, and if that’s the case, the Bulls should be well into the 100s. Take Chicago for your NBA picks.
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