Kevin Durant O/U 48.5 points, rebounds and assists
Durant has been a monster over the last several months, however he might find himself with a few less shots on the board tonight. Russell Westbrook looks ready to make his return tonight, and even though he is a game time decision, if he plays, he is going to cut directly into Durant’s shots.
On top of that, he may have Lebron James guarding him, and after getting destroyed by Durant in their first meeting a few weeks ago, he will want to show up tonight in order to not get embarrassed twice.
Durant may also spend a lot of his time not guarding James, which would put him out on the perimeter guarding a smaller player potentially. This will eat into his rebounding totals a lot, and if he only has about six assists and five rebounds tonight, that likely won’t be enough to cash the over. He likely isn’t going to get 35 points tonight even if Westbrook only plays 15 minutes, and with a total of 48.5, I like the under.
My Pick: UNDER 48.5 Points, rebounds assists (-120
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Dwight Howard O/U 19.5 points
Dwight Howard had a 20-point night against his old team, the Lakers last night, and he did it all in 28 minutes of action. After playing less than 30 minutes last night, Howard should have plenty left in the tank against the Warriors tonight.
The Warriors will likely be without Andrew Bogut once again, which will only help Howard’s scoring tonight. The Warriors have no one to match up with Howard if Bogut is not in the lineup. Jermaine O’Neal will likely start in his place again, but at this stage of his career, O’Neal is not going to be able to stay with Howard the entire game. This will lead to more shots for Howard, and probably 20 or more points.
My Pick: OVER 19.5 points (-120)
Stephen Curry O/U 38.5 points, rebounds and assists
Stephen Curry has a reasonable price tonight from Bet365, and even though he has not been great against the Rockets this season, I see him being able to get enough assists and rebounds to cover the over for this wager.
Curry didn’t have a great night last night against the Kings, however he can turn it around tonight. Even though he has not been good going up against Patrick Beverley, the Rockets played last night as well. This will likely lead to them being a little tired, and a little lax on the defensive end of the floor as well.
Tonight’s game should also be a fast paced game, which will only help Curry’s stat line. I think he has to have a floor of 20 points and 10 assists tonight, so just a few more points and rebounds would help us cash this bet.
Another factor tonight will be if Steve Blake makes his Warrior-debut. Blake was brought over in a trade for Kent Bazemore and Marshon Brooks, and if he is able to play tonight, they will likely use him to move Curry off the ball. If this is the case, James Harden or someone else on the Rockets will defend Curry at times, which will lead to more offensive production from Curry. I’m looking at the over for value.My Pick: OVER 38.5 Points, rebounds, and assists (-120)