Nowitzki O/U 22 ½ points
When playing against the Spurs this season, Dirk Nowitzki has been the tail of two cities. When playing in San Antonio, his stats haven’t been that good against an underrated Spurs defense. However playing at home like he is tonight, and he has had two 20+ point games against the Spurs.
Tonight Bovada sportsbooks has him coming in at and over/under of 22 ½, and I think he will sneak over that tonight, cashing the -125 wager. The over is chalked some, but it is still valuable enough to trust Dirk to score into the mid-20s. The Mavs are still pushing for the playoffs, and even though Kawhi Leonard is one of the better Dirk defenders in the NBA, there is a chance that the Spurs don’t play their starters big minutes.
Leonard might see the pine some if one team gets a big lead, but even if they don’t, the Spurs have a big enough cushion on the Thunder to not be panicked if they lose tonight. At this point in the season however, and with a clinch in their grasp, I think the Spurs play for it tonight. That may help or hurt our play on Dirk, however Leonard can’t guard him the whole game, and 23 or more points seems legitimate of Dirk can hit his three pointers.
My Pick: Nowitzki OVER 22 ½ points (-125) @ Bovada
Curry O/U 8 ½ assists
There has been no word yet out of Oakland of whether or not Ty Lawson will play in this game, but if he sits again which seems likely, I think Curry is going to have a big game here. However I’m not going with a play on his total points for this game. At 24 ½, I think that number is a wash from our friends at Bovada. However his assists total is by far the best NBA Odds value I have seen all night.
At 8 ½ and likely with no Lawson, Curry isn’t going to be doing much passing tonight. He should be in attack mode all night, which will ultimately limit his assist numbers. David Lee is also still banged up which potentially leaves one less big man to finish easy assists for Curry in the paint.
Plus there is the blowout factor. Tonight’s NBA Odds have the spread at -12 in favor of the Warriors. If they get a big lead and Curry sits out the entire 4th quarter, do you really think he is going to get nine or more assists? The answer is a resounding no, but I haven’t even gotten to the best part yet.
The NBA Odds are even money for the under, and I am all over it tonight for my NBA prop picks.
My Pick: Stephen Curry UNDER 8 ½ assists (+100) @ Bovada