Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction Today: Game 4 Odds & Expert Picks

We like Oklahoma City to get back on track in today's Game 4 as we offer our Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: May 11, 2025 7:13 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction Today: Game 4 Odds & Expert Picks, May 11 — Pictured: Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon drives at Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren. Photo by Ron Chenoy via Imagn Images

Oklahoma City looks for a bounce-back performance in today's Game 4 (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) at Ball Arena as we offer our Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction, part of our NBA picks.

The Thunder are -225 on the moneyline favorites at our best NBA betting sites.

🔢 Thunder vs. Nuggets updated betting action

Updated betting info via BetMGM.

The Thunder are the 6.5-point betting favorites after opening at -5.5
The total increased from 226.5 to 227.5
The Thunder's moneyline odds shortened from -235 to -275

💰 Thunder vs. Nuggets expert picks for Game 4

🔎 Our NEW NBA player prop odds tool can help you find the best NBA odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Against the spread pick: Thunder -5.5 (-112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Thunder (-225 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 227.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

🏀 Game 4 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Thunder 115, Nuggets 107

The Nuggets went 2-2 in the regular season against the Thunder, making them one of five teams with multiple wins against the West’s No. 1 seed.

However, the Thunder entered the series with the best point differential in NBA history (plus-12.9). Each of the previous four teams with point differentials of plus-11.6 or better all won the championship. That means this series is far from over.

I expect Oklahoma City to get back to what it did well in Game 2, when the team turned in its second 40-point win of the postseason. The Thunder scored 34 points off turnovers in Game 2, the most in a playoff game since moving to Oklahoma City in 2008-09. They also outscored the Nuggets 52-28 on points in the paint.

Oklahoma City’s ability to neutralize Nikola Jokic should go a long way toward a Game 4 cover. Jokic registered a minus-36 rating in Game 2, his worst in any game of his career (regular season or playoffs). And Jokic entered the series with 20 points per game in losses versus the Thunder compared to 29 points per game during wins.

It would behoove Oklahoma City to put its foot on the gas early in this game. The Thunder totaled the fewest regular-season games within three points during the final 30 seconds (eight), while the Nuggets were more battle-tested with 23 such outings.

I expect the Thunder to lean on their NBA-best 107.5 defensive rating, especially with this game on a quick turnaround. I'm grabbing the -5.5 before the line goes higher, which it may do considering the juice is as high as -115 at several of our best NBA betting sites.

✅ Best bet: Thunder -5.5 (-112 via DraftKings)

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📈 Thunder vs. Nuggets odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

🪧 Game 4 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Spread: Thunder -6 (-112) | Nuggets +6 (-108)
Moneyline: Thunder -245 | Nuggets +200
Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)

🚑 Thunder vs. Nuggets injury report

Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.

📡 How to watch Thunder vs. Nuggets live (Game 4)

📅 Sunday, May 11
🕗 3:30 p.m. ET
📍 Ball Arena (Denver)
📺 ABC | 🛜 Fubo, YouTube TV, Sling TV

💵 Best NBA betting sites

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”