Thunder vs. Grizzlies: With an Inflated Total our NBA Pick is on 'Under'

Jason Lake

Monday, December 7, 2015 8:11 PM GMT

Oklahoma City is Chalk City. The Thunder are having a hard time beating the NBA odds, and they're 3-point road faves Tuesday night versus the Memphis Grizzlies.

Jason's 2015-16 record as of Dec. 7: 8-9 ATS, 2-0 Total

 

Usually when Russell Westbrook gets a triple-double, that's bad news for the Oklahoma City Thunder – at least from a betting perspective. But this past Sunday, Westbrook was incredibly efficient with his 19 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists versus the Sacramento Kings (+11 away). Westbrook only needed 13 shots to score his 19 points, and finished the day at plus-13. Well done, sir.

Unfortunately for the Thunder, Kevin Durant also put up a triple-double: 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 turnovers. Oklahoma City still won the game 98-95 to improve to 12-8 SU, but at 7-13 ATS, this is now one of the least profitable teams in the entire NBA. The Thunder will try again this Tuesday (8:00 p.m. ET) when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies, who have been very difficult to pin down from a value standpoint. Memphis opened as a 3-point puppy on our NBA odds board with a total of 203.

 

Most Average Defender
Getting Durant (28.8 PER, +5.7 BPM) back into the lineup was supposed to help the Thunder return to elite status this year. He's definitely playing at a very high level – on offense. Durant's defense has always been around league-average, and that's where it is again this year at –0.1 DBPM. As we go to press, the Thunder rank No. 10 in the league at 100.3 points allowed per 100 possessions.

Defense becomes even more problematic when you look further down the bench. That midseason trade Oklahoma City pulled off last year to land Enes Kanter (23.6 PER, –1.2 BPM) hasn't panned out as well as hoped; D.J. Augustin (10.0 PER, –3.1 BPM) seems to have lost the offensive touch he showed when he was with the Chicago Bulls, and Kyle Singler (–1.1 PER, –9.3 BPM) doesn't look like he belongs anywhere near an NBA court, unless he's selling popcorn.

 

Run Run Randolph
The Grizzlies (12-9 SU, 9-12 ATS) used to be known for their defense, but they've fallen from No. 4 to No. 20 on the efficiency charts since last year, giving up an extra 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Mike Conley (18.9 PER, +1.5 BPM) has taken a step back in this department, posting a career-low –2.0 DBPM. And Zach Randolph (15.3 PER, –3.2 BPM) may have passed his best-before date at age 34.

It's hard to recommend either of these teams for your NBA picks against the spread, so we're going to suggest taking the UNDER in this situation – yes, even after we just whined and moaned about the defenses on both sides. The UNDER is on a six-game winning streak for the Thunder; their reputation exceeds their ability to score at this point, and Randolph (16.5 points per 36 minutes) is melting away before our eyes. Get back to us when Brandan Wright (17.7 PER, +0.4 BPM) comes off the injured list for Memphis.

NBA Pick: Under 204.5 at Bookmaker

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