Thunder vs. Bucks - Tuesday NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, October 31, 2017 4:18 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2017 4:18 PM UTC

By far the top game of the night features the new-look Thunder invading Milwaukee for a game against the Bucks. NBA Odds makers have the Thunder as -1 ½ favorites on the road, and while taking the points does seem enticing, a better play might be the total of 212.

Thunder vs. Bucks

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Free NBA Pick: Under 212Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

There are a couple of reasons why the Thunder are 3-3 to start the season, and a lot of it has to do with chemistry. There are a lot of new moving parts on this team and it’s going to take 15-to-20 games for them to come together. Until then their offense is a work in progress, especially on he road against good defensive teams.

Look at their second game against the Jazz as an example. The Bucks aren’t as good defensively as Utah, but they are long and they matchup really well against the Thunder. Even though they may not win the game, they are going to do their best to slow down this pace and make sure they don’t get into a fast-paced game with OKC.

That’s why I was surprised to see the total at 212 points in the NBA Odds board, and surprised to see it has gone up since it opened. These two teams play at a pace of about 97 possessions per game, and both teams rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating to start the season.

The Thunder have been especially good on defense, even though their numbers are skewed a little after that game against Chicago. Still, they are allowing less than 100 points per 100 possessions, which is very good in the NBA.

Furthermore, the Thunder are 4-2 cashing the under so far this season, and they are 2-1 cashing it on the road. The under cashed in both of their meetings last season, and since 2015, the Bucks are an impressive 22-10 cashing the under as home underdogs.

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