If you’re new to NBA betting, it can be a daunting 82-game schedule. However, if you can manage your bankroll throughout the entire season, it can be very profitable. Here are three easy tips that might help you win more of your NBA Picks.
Look At a Team’s Recent Game History
Looking ahead at the schedule for the week, and highlighting teams that are playing on the second night of a back to back, or their third game in four nights is an excellent starting point. This is especially true later in the season once the month of January hits, and the pre-All Star Break lull starts. Fading the teams on second night of a home-to-road back to back at that point in the season is normally a pretty profitable system to follow as well when making your NBA picks.
Look Ahead at The Overnight Lines
This is a great way to tell if a lean you have on an early line is looking good. The public will start moving the NBA odds gradually in one direction or another, and depending on what you thought it should be, you can bet accordingly. For instance if the line opens the night before the game at -7, and then moves to -7 ½, and you think the favorite will win by nine or ten points, you might be able to buy low on a spread that is going to rise even higher. You can also just watch the lines as they move and wait to get better value on a spread later in the evening or the next morning. There will be instances that you like a road team to keep the game close and the spread will open at +5 and quickly rise to +6 or even +6 ½. Waiting for the odds to settle higher will enable you to get much better value on a team.
Fade Double-Digit Road Favorites
This is a little more advanced, but the concept is pretty simple. Parody in the NBA is getting better, and there are only a few instances where teams are horrible. I’m talking to you New York and LA. However, both the Lakers and Knicks should be much improved from last season after solid offseasons from both of them, and it could mean that double-digit road favorites become an even worse play. Last season, double-digit road favorites were 18-22. Still, that’s pretty close to .500, but if you take away three of the league’s best teams, the averages get even worse. For instance, without the Cavs, Spurs and Clippers, the NBA was only 8-18 last season when playing as a double-digit road favorite. This is especially true early in the season, where below-average teams are fresh and motivated, while the good teams may have not hit their strides. Later in the year when tanking comes into play is a different story, but fading big road favorites is also a good rule to follow.