Third Time's a Charm: Casual Bettors & Sportsbooks Still Favoring Warriors in Game 4

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, June 11, 2015 6:02 PM GMT

Despite now losing two  in a row, & with a pivotal Game 4 coming up on Thursday evening, Warriors are still NBA Odds favorites on the road in Cleveland. Will these lines move,too, before tip off?

Bettors and Sportsbooks Still Favoring Golden State
As badly as the Warriors have shot outside of the second half from Stephen Curry in Game 3, the Dubs have always been in a position to win the last two games at the end. Now with all of the new injuries to Cleveland mounting up like Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova having to be hospitalized for cramps, the sportsbooks and betting sharps are still moving these lines to further favor the Golden State Warriors.

After opening at -2 ½ in favor of the Warriors, NBA odds has climbed up to -3 at almost every book as of this afternoon. Only BetDSI and WagerWeb still have it at -2 ½, and even before Game 3 ended, I saw some books favoring Cleveland. After probably making a ton of money though over the last few nights, who knows if the books even care that the bettors are all over the Warriors again. Lebron has been their biggest friend over the last three games outside of his player prop for points being easy money.

Curry found his shot in the second half, and if that continues into Game 4, then the betting public will likely be happy with the outcome of their bets on the Warriors. However, this Cleveland starting five as it stands is +10% in eFG% in the playoffs, and they were +17% in the regular season. That means they are out-defending everyone who steps on the court with them, and that should lead you to believe that the Cavs will win this one, and once again the under could be the play. However, that’s not where my head is at for Game 4.

 

Total Movement and Predictions
I predicted the over would cash in Game 3, and even though it didn’t, it almost did even after a horrible offensive 2nd quarter for both teams, and the complete collapse of the Golden State offense in the first half. Even after those random and possibly outlier scenarios in Game 3, the sportsbooks are still plummeting the total for Game 4. Right now it sits at 193, (down from 196 in Game 3) and even after I was wrong in Game 3, I am doubling down on the over for this game. Curry should be able to carry over his hot performance from the 4th quarter into Game 4 tomorrow night, and with the Cavs players slowly falling apart outside of James, their defense is bound to start unraveling sooner rather than later.

I could see this next game as one of the highest scoring games of the series, especially with how short the Cavs bench has become. However will other bettors agree with me? I alone can not move the line up, but after two straight horrible offensive games from the Warriors, I could see the third time being the charm for the Warriors shooting touch from the outside.