Fast Break: Three Totals at 230 Or Higher in NBA Action Thursday

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, November 1, 2018 3:05 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018 3:05 PM UTC

Welcome to another big night of NBA action! It’s time for another huge slate of NBA betting and there are still several bits of news and injuries you need to be aware of before placing your bets!

The home dogs did it again on Wednesday, and while home teams in general have been cashing pretty well ATS to start the season, the league-wide story of big scores is continuing. Can we expect more of the same for Thursday’s NBA odds? The "over" is 65-44 (59.63%) this season.

ABA Flashback

I was not around when the ABA merged with the NBA, but from the grain video I’ve seen, combined with reading about it some, I can deduct that we are closer to returning to those days than ever before. Teams are on pace for a record-breaking scoring this season, and while I expect a correction to come at some point, the sportsbooks aren’t taking any chances on Thursday.

Three of the six games on the slate have totals in the 230s, and the other three are 220 or higher. Simply put, we expect to see plenty of points on the board.

However, just looking at average scoring is a square’s method of total betting. Sharp bettors such as yourself know to look at a team’s offensive and defensive rating, as well as the pace to which these teams have been playing to start the season. Pace is also way up this year, and that could also have to do with the rule change of resetting the shot clock after an offensive rebound.

Either way though, tonight will go a long way in figuring out when that scoring correction will come about. Out of the 12 teams in action, seven of them are playing with a pace of 102 possessions per game or higher. The Cavs are one of the slower-paced teams in action, but they still hold the league’s worst defense, giving up 118 points per 100 possessions. What I’m trying to say is, there could be A LOT of points on the board.

My favorite game for this has to be the Kings and Hawks. These teams are ranked first and second in pace, and they both have defenses allowing about 110 points per 100 possessions.

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In 2017-18, the Kings ranked dead last in the NBA in Pace (95.6 possessions per 48 minutes) and scoring (98.8 points per game).

This season, the Kings rank second in the NBA in Pace (107.2 possessions per 48 minutes) and seventh in scoring (116.5 ppg)https://t.co/0SAbDy3HA0

— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) October 31, 2018
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Thursday's NBA Betting Trends
  • Hornets are 3-1 SU & ATS in their last four games against the Thunder
  • "Over" is 3-1 in the last four games between the Hornets and Thunder
  • 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Clippers
  • "Under" is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Clippers and 76ers
  • "Over" is 3-1 in the last four games between the Cavaliers and Nuggets
  • Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bucks
  • "Over" is 9-4 in the last 13 games between the Bucks and Celtics
  • Pelicans are 9-3 SU & ATS in their last 12 games against the Blazers
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