Take Undervalued Mavericks Plus Odds Our NBA Pick vs. Warriors

Jason Lake

Wednesday, January 27, 2016 1:04 PM GMT

The Dallas Mavericks got taken to the wall Tuesday night, by the worst team in the West. Their NBA odds don't look so good versus the first-place Golden State Warriors.

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NBA Pick: Mavericks +16
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Jason's 2015-16 record as of Jan. 26: 16-17-1 ATS, 5-1-1 Total

That was a gutsy win the Dallas Mavericks (26-21 SU, 27-19-1 ATS) just pulled off. They went toe-to-toe with one of the greatest franchises of all-time, but in the end, Dirk Nowitzki made a nice little jimmy to give Dallas the hard-fought victory, 92-90. Too bad it was against the Los Angeles Lakers (+6.5 at home).

And too bad the Mavericks have to make the trip north to Oakland to face the Golden State Warriors (41-4 SU, 27-27-1 ATS) Wednesday night. The Dubs took Tuesday off after their epic 120-90 thrashing of the San Antonio Spurs (+4.5 away); they should be well-rested for this one, and the NBA odds have Golden State laying... is this right? Golden State is a 15.5-point chalk, with a total of 215. My word. Tip-off is 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

 

Mejri Restoration
Okay, so the Warriors are good. Very, very good. According to Basketball-Reference, they're nearly 12 points better than Dallas on a neutral court. So all this chalk is justified, then. Golden State might even be a bargain when you factor in the Mavericks playing the second of back-to-back road games. And let's not forget about center Zaza Pachulia (17.8 PER, +2.7 BPM), who missed Tuesday's tilt against the Lakers with a sore Achilles. He's up in the air for Wednesday.

Ah, but who's this distinguished 7-foot-2 behemoth taking Pachulia's place? It's Salah Mejri, the first Arab player in the history of the Euroleague, and the first Tunisian ever to play in the NBA. Mejri had a 20.5 PER and a +1.0 BPM in eight games going into Tuesday's action, then he played well against Roy Hibbert and the Lakers, coming out ahead at plus-4 in 23 minutes of work. The Mavs also have JaVale McGee (20.6 PER, –3.5 BPM) coming off the bench, and he's still good in limited quantities, when available.

 

Dies Festus
Let's also not forget what happened the last time these two teams met. It was December 30 in Dallas, and the Mavericks won 114-91 as 3.5-point home dogs. Okay, Stephen Curry (33.0 PER, +13.1 BPM) didn't play for Golden State that day. I suppose that's worth mentioning. Neither did Festus Ezeli (18.3 PER, +0.9 BPM). Curry will presumably be in the lineup on Wednesday, but Ezeli is day-to-day with a recent knee injury of unknown severity.

We're leaning toward the Mavs in this situation. Chalk has caught even with the Dubs lately at 4-4 ATS in their last eight games, and the Mavs have been an undervalued NBA pick this year – adding Mejri to the mix just increases their value. By the way, Golden State's 120-90 win over the Spurs? Tim Duncan wasn't playing. Still very impressive, but the market may have been impressed by a few too many points.