At the beginning of the season, some people projected that the 2014 NBA Finals would feature a matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and San Antonio Spurs. While that’s still a possibility, the Nets 10-20 record indicates that it’s not a likelihood. Winning in San Antonio on Tuesday would be a major step in the right direction but a more likely proposition is covering the 12-point spread. Winning outright doesn’t look realistic.
The Brooklyn Nets Can Win Because…
There are some stats that should give you pause before betting on the Spurs. For starters, the Spurs are 0-4 against the spread this season when playing at home with a total between 205 and 209.5. On top of that, they are only 8-7 ATS against teams allowing more than 99 points per game and have split the spread (11-11) in their last 22 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Not much has gone right for the Nets this year but they are still 3-1 ATS on Tuesday nights and 6-4 when coming off a loss of 10 or more.
The Spurs are just 5-3 straight up in their last eight, which, by their standards, is subpar. The Nets still have a talented, veteran team and they’re at least capable of playing with the Spurs – even if they haven’t showed as much this season.
The San Antonio Spurs Can Win Because…
The Nets are flat-out brutal right now. Sure, the Spurs have three losses in their last eight but those losses were against the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets. Each of these teams is well above .500 and is a threat to win the Championship this season. The Nets are a horrible team that wouldn’t even qualify for the playoffs in the terrible Eastern Conference.
The Spurs have feasted on losing teams this year as they are 9-3 ATS and 12-0 straight up against teams below .500. They also love playing against the East as they’ve won 10 of their last 11 and 53 of their last 66 non-conference games.
On top of that, the Nets are slumping right now as they’ve dropped five of their last six. Their lone win in that stretch was a victory over the league-worst Milwaukee Bucks. Add the Spurs to your NBA picks – even if the NBA odds on this game feature such a big spread.
Outlook & Pick
There’s really no reason to take the Nets here. They’ve failed to cover the spread in five of their last six overall. They are just 3-8 against teams with a winning record this year.
This is just a mismatch on every level. This is the type of game where the Spurs almost always take care of business and it’s hard to see anything but that type of an outcome once more. The Nets lost 105-91 in their most recent game in Indiana on Saturday and you can expect a similar result on Tuesday night.
NBA Pick: Spurs -12 at Bookmaker