These are the 2 hottest teams in the NBA. At first glance, it would be no surprise if this is a competitively priced game. A closer inspection of the standings shows us that nothing could be further from the truth.
Atlanta Hawks (-2-) vs. Detroit Pistons 7:35 ET
These are the 2 hottest teams in the NBA. At first glance, it would be no surprise if this is a competitively priced game. A closer inspection of the standings shows us that nothing could be further from the truth. Atlanta has a 2 ½ game lead over Chicago for the best record in the East. That mark is 27-8 SU, a full 15 games better than home standing Detroit, who languishes at 12-23 SU. Let’s take a closer look inside each team to see how current form has impacted the NBA odds.
Since Detroit released Josh Smith, they are on a 7-0 SU ATS run, outscoring the opposition by an average of 108-93. In those games, they have averaged 48% shooting, while holding the opposition to 43%. Compare that to their 5-23 SU start in which they were outscored 101-94 and were outshot 46% to 41%. Detroit has not won 8 straight games in almost 6 years. First year HC Stan VanGundy said “we don’t have guys that are getting concerned about who is in the game or their playing time or their shots or anything else. They just want to win games.” In their most recent victory (108-95) at Dallas, interior force Greg Monroe led the way with 27 points, 18 rebounds and 6 assists. DJ Augustin added 26 in a reserve role. The Pistons’ winning streak began against the weak links of the East, Indiana, Cleveland, Orlando and the Knicks. But, when they completed the Texas two-step with a back-to-back sweep of San Antonio and Dallas, one had to take notice. Now, they must prove they can do it against the best in the East, who will be clearly alerted by the Detroit streak.
Atlanta’s turnaround from the 5-5 SU ATS start began with a 99-89 home victory against these Detroit Pistons on November 21st. Since that win, Atlanta has gone on a 22-3 SU, 20-5 ATS blitz, including 6 consecutive wins and covers. Compare their 12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS road record to the 4-13 SU, 5-12 ATS home record of Detroit. This streak has all taken place with the backdrop of ownership going through the process of selling the team, which is expected to remain in Atlanta. Clearly, the current owners will be getting a premium price! Inclusive in this streak is 7 consecutive road victories in which Atlanta has averaged 107 PPG. Perimeter power comes in the person of Jeff Teague, who has averaged 24 PPG on 54% shooting L6G. Al Horford has led a strong interior that includes Milsap and Carroll. They will be essential in negating Detroit’s Drummond, who has averaged 17 boards in the previous 10 games. Much like Detroit, Atlanta’s run has been for real. It has included victories at Washington, Miami, Brooklyn, Indiana, Cleveland, Houston, Dallas, Utah, Portland and the Clippers. Certainly doesn’t seem that the Detroit home court is any stronger than those.
The bottom line here is that although we have 2 teams on winning streaks, there is clearly value with the road team based on the inverted home/road dichotomy and YTD averages of the two.
NBA Pick: Atlanta Hawks -3 at 5Dimes