Take Rising Mavericks -2.5 As The Sharp NBA Pick Over Pistons

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, March 9, 2016 2:33 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 9, 2016 2:33 PM GMT

The Pistons are trying desperately to nudge their way into the postseason picture and handing the struggling Dallas Mavericks a loss tonight would help the cause. Let's review the NBA odds.

Detroit Pistons (32-31 SU, 32-30-1 ATS)
The Pistons have won five of their last seven and covered the NBA odds in each and every one of those victories. In their last outing the suddenly surging boys from Motown dropped the hammer on the improving Trail Blazers by the score of 123-103 on Sunday night. It was in stark contrast to their anemic performance in their previous game in which they fell as seven point road dogs to the Knicks 102-89.

Reggie Jackson netted 30 points in the win over Portland and currently leads his team in scoring with 19.2 points per game. Big man Andre Drummond had 14 points in the game and a monster night on the glass as he hauled down 18 boards which contributed mightily to the Piston's 45-31 rebounding advantage. Second year man Reggie Bullock hit all three of his shots from beyond the arc and had 11 points in 26 minutes. Bullock has been logging increased minutes since a shoulder injury sidelined teammate Stanley Johnson. The former Tar Heel has made the most of that increased playing time and should continue to see more court time even when Johnson returns to the lineup.

 

Dallas Mavericks (33-31 SU, 33-30-1 ATS)
If you have included the Mavericks in your NBA picks over the last three games then you have my condolences. Dallas fell 104-101 to Sacramento as 6 ½ point home chalk and then traveled to Denver where they were outgunned by the Nuggets 116-114 in overtime as four-point road favorites. The following night they flew back home to welcome the Clippers and the jet lag combined with the overtime frame from the night before must have gotten the best of them because they were shellacked 109-90 in their own building by the visitors and never even sniffed an ATS cover as 5 ½ point home dogs.

With 18 games remaining the Mavs have a tenuous grasp on the seventh seed in the West but if this losing streak continues the team could be outside the playoff bubble at season's end. The ageless Dirk Nowitzki leads the team in scoring averaging 17.9 points per game while big man Zaza Pachulia is tops in rebounds averaging 10.3 boards per game. But Pachulia has not been the same since returning from the All-Star break with only two double digit scoring efforts since then. Yet the Mavs are getting production from David Lee, a Boston Celtics' castoff, who has been reinvigorated since coming to the Lone Star State. Lee has averaged 11.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game in a Dallas uniform.

 

Betting Analysis
This will be the first meeting of the season between these clubs but Dallas is both 3-1 straight up and against the number versus Detroit over their last four contests. The Mavs are 19-14 straight up and 19-13-1 ATS at home while the Pistons are 13-20 straight up and ATS on the highway. In this battle Dallas has a slight advantage offensively (102.4 vs. 101.7 PPG) while Detroit gets the nod defensively (100.5 vs. 102.7 PPG allowed).

I am siding with an underperforming Dallas team here who is 5-1 ATS over the last three seasons after three or more consecutive losses. Detroit has proven they are not a team that can be trusted when on the road while Dallas has had success this season at home. Watch the Mavs get it together after getting humiliated in their last outing against the Clips.

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NBA Pick: Mavericks -2.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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