Take Red-Hot Warriors As Our Sharp NBA Pick vs. Injured Heat

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, February 24, 2016 12:50 PM GMT

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors are in Miami on Wednesday night. Let's review the NBA odds now!

Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors (50-4 SU, 32-22-1 ATS) play the 4th game of their current 6-game Road Trip (Portland, Los Angeles Clippers, Atlanta) as they now head head further south to AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami to face the Heat (31-24 SU, 28-26-1 ATS) in an inter-conference date on Wednesday evening in the Sunshine State. This is the second of two meetings between these teams teams this season, with the Warriors having defeated Miami, 111-103 at the ORACLE Arena on Jan. 11. NBA odds makers have opened the Warriors up as solid 8-point favorites (Bookmaker) in this game with the Total (Points) ranging from 214½ to 216 (Bookmaker). The Money Line (Winner) odds see Golden State priced at -375 (Pinnacle) with the host Miami Heat at +305 on the takeback as the Home underdog.

 

Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors (26-5 SU Road, 19-11-1 ATS Road) and Head Coach Steve Kerr defeated the Hawks in Atlanta in their last game on Monday night, 102-92 (GSW -6½, 225½) as the visitors used a 26-17 4th Quarter to earn their 50th victory of the Regular Season—the fastest to get to that mark in NBA history. Golden State (+125 to win NBA Championship, BetVictor) was led in scoring by The Splash Brothers, G’s Stephen Curry (36 points) and Klay Thompson (27 points), while fellow All-Star F Draymond Green had a workmanlike 8 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists in the win which was the Hawks 4th straight Loss at Home. The Warriors (115.3 AF-103.8 AA) only shot 43.% from the Field for the game (39-89) and were outrebounded by Al Horford (21 points) and Atlanta 47-43, but still found a way to get the win and Point Spread cover. Before the game, the Warriors signed former Cavaliers backup C Anderson Varejão and the 33-year-old veteran to the team with backup C Festus Ezeli (Knee) out until late March and starting C Andrew Bogut (Achilles) nursing a bad foot. The big Aussie had just 3 points on 1-for-4 shooting but 11 rebounds in 29 minutes of play against the Hawks on Monday. New (Old) Kid In The Bay Varejão is listed as Questionable for this game against Miami while the aforementioned Ezeli is Out until late March and SF James Michael McAdoo (Toe) is (seemingly always) listed as Questionable on the Warriors Injury report.

 

Miami Heat
The Miami Heat (18-11 SU Home, 14-14-1 ATS Home) and Head Coach Erik Spoelstra have a nice SU Record (31-26) and overall place in the Eastern Conference standings (4th) at this point in Time, but it seems Injuries will eventually catch up with this bunch mathematically. After the Heat (70/1 to win NBA title, Marathon) successfully played through Injuries to key players like C Hassan Whiteside (Oblique) and PF Chris Andersen (Knee), But now it’s the team’s two big guns who are hurt. SG Dwyane Wade (Knee), who was listed as Questionable on Monday night, but ended up playing in a hard-fought 101-93 win against the Pacers in Miami on Monday night. In that victory (and Point Spread cover), Miami C Hassan Whiteside had 19 points and 18 rebounds and the always-hobbled Wade finished with 16 points. PF Chris Bosh (19.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg) has a Leg injury and is Out Indefinitely for Miami (96.7 ppg-96.6 ppg) so the health and participation of Whiteside (11.2 rpg) down low will be huge for this team in the immediate future. SF Luol Deng (Finger) is listed as Probable for this game while PG Beno Udrih (Foot) is listed as Questionable and SG Tyler Johnson (Shoulder) is Out until early April.

 

Trends, Recent Relevant Series Information and Predictable Pick
In the L10 meetings in this series, the Warriors are 5-3-2 against Miami, with the series seeing both teams cover and 2 Pushes in the L4 meetings. Fancy that. But under the microscope we see that Golden State has W4 of the last 5 ATS in Miami and are 6-2 ATS in their L8 games against the Southeast Division after Monday’s win and cover in Atlanta and are 7-2 ATS in their L9 Wednesday games. Miami is 9-3 ATS in its L12 games and the Heat are also 9-4-1 in their L14 against the Pacific Division. The Warriors come in here 12-13 ATS on 1 Day of Rest while the Heat are 16-20-1 with 1 Day Rest. And, the Under is 6-4 ATS in the L10 meetings in this series and Miami has really trended to the Under (20-35-1) but the Warriors have (obviously) seen more Overs (31-24 O/U), so the Total is a tough handicap with Golden State possibly a little tired playing their 4th of 6 Road tilts here and traveling from Oakland to Portland to Los Angeles to Atlanta and now to Miami in such a relatively short span of Time. The Underdog is 8-3-3 in the L14 meetings. And a powerful one: The Road team is a dominating 15-3-4 ATS in the L22 games in this series (78.9%).

This one should play out like the Warriors game on Monday in Atlanta with the visitors getting out to a double-digit lead and then trying to hold off any Het comeback. Expect Green to provide more points for Golden State and Bogut’s main responsibility may be to (try to) hold off Whiteside underneath and with PF Green helping, Golden State may be able to achieve this. With Bosh out this becomes a clearer handicap as the warriors haven’t exactly been playing up to their own standards yet are 50-5 and intent on breaking the Chicago Bulls 1995/1996 win record. Curry and Thompson could combine for 70+ in a game like this one and Old Man River Wade will put up a fight, but with role players like Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Brandon Rush and Marreese Speights wanting to prove their worth with their minutes, this Harlem Globetrotters-like team can’t help but score 100+ points every game. Take Warriors as your NBA pick for tonight.

 

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Final Score Prediction: Warriors 114  Heat 97
NBA Pick: Warriors -8
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker