Take the Pelicans, Hornets ‘under’ as Your NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, January 7, 2015 6:12 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

 

Do not look for much scoring down south Wednesday night when the New Orleans Pelicans (17-17, 6-12 away) pay a visit to the Charlotte Hornets (12-24, 7-12 home) at Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, NC at 7:05 ET in a game available on SportSouth.

The posted total at Bet365 is 193½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.


Pelicans Keep Alternating Wins and Losses
The Pelicans are right at the .500 mark, but then again, what would you expect from a team that has been “consistently inconsistent”? You see, with their 92-85 loss to the Wizards on Monday the Pelicans have now alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games. Still, at 17-17, New Orleans has the best record of any last-place team in the NBA while playing in the super-loaded Southwest Division.

The Hornets made the NBA Playoffs for the second time in franchise history when they were still known as the Bobcats last season, but they are off to just a 12-24 start this year mainly due to a lack of offense. Charlotte may be starting to turn things around a bit though entering this contest after being the winning NBA picks in their last two games, both on the road at Orlando and Boston.


Hornets Accustomed to Low Scoring Games
The Hornets are still just 25th in the league in scoring with their 95.4 points per game, no thanks to ranking 28th out of 30 NBA teams in field goal percentage at a dismal 42.7 percent and 29th in three-point shooting at a pitiful 31.2 percent. The defense meanwhile has done a commendable job allowing 99.7 points per game and cracking the top half of the league in defensive efficiency in 15th at 103.5 points per 100 possessions.

And the offense has been even worse over the last five games averaging 93.2 points on an excruciating 40.8 percent from the field. Luckily the Hornets are also allowing just an average of 96.4 points in those five games, which has helped them win the last two contests although Charlotte did uncharacteristically put up 104 points offensively in the win at Boston.

The Hornets now hope to carry some of that offensive production to Charlotte with them, as they enter this contest on a 4-1 ‘under’ run at home.


Better New Orleans Defense as of Late
Now, the Pelicans may be alternating wins and losses lately, but one constant has been the improvement of the defense compared to earlier in the year. Granted New Orleans is still just 20th in the league in points against at 101.0 per game and 25th in field goal percentage at 46.7 percent, but at least those numbers are heading in the right direction.

Even in defeat, New Orleans held Washington to 92 points on Monday marking the seventh time in the last 10 games that the Pelicans have held their opponents to below 100 points, surrendering an average of 97.2 points in those 10 games with the ‘under’ going 8-2. This span includes allowing 95 points in an overtime game at San Antonio.

Furthermore the New Orleans offense only ranks 15th with its 101.4 points per game, which is rather surprising for a team that boasts a league MVP candidate in Anthony Davis, and that average sinks all the way down to 96.6 points on the road where the Pelicans are shooting a pedestrian 43.7 percent from the field.


Rarely Piece 100-Point Games Together
Finally it may not be a good thing for the Hornets that they scored those 104 points vs. the Celtics on Monday as they are not usually potent enough to piece together consecutive strong offensive efforts, as evidenced by the fact that the ‘under’ is 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring at least 100 points in their previous game.

Add this all up and the ‘under’ appears to offer value when New Orleans visits Charlotte on Wednesday.

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NBA Pick: Pelicans, Hornets ‘under’ 193½ (-110)