Take 'Over' With Your NBA Picks As Hornets & Nuggets Collide

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, January 10, 2016 6:25 PM GMT

After solid first months of the NBA season, these two teams have fallen back down to earth and both are well below .500 SU. What will be the smart NBA pick in Hornets vs. Nuggets?

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Free NBA Pick: Over 201
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

 

ATS Issues
The Hornets started off the season on a nice hot streak, and before some of their bigger injuries it looked as if they were going to challenge for a playoff spot in the East this season. It’s still a long season, and they could very well make their way back into the picture in the East, but neither one of these teams have been very good plays ATS, and that makes handicapping the small spread in this one pretty difficult.

The NBA odds boards have the Nuggets as -1½ favorites in this one, with a total of 201 points, but with the way the Nuggets have been playing at home, that line doesn’t give you much confidence. The Nuggets are only 4-10-2 ATS when playing at home this season, but before you go jumping in on the Hornets, they might be without two starters again, and they aren’t much better ATS on the road this season at 7-9 ATS.

While the Hornets are 4-4 ATS when playing on the road against the Western Conference, it might be the better play tonight to ignore the spread altogether, and go with the total of 201 instead. Charlotte has been ok against the West this season, but a glaring number that can’t be ignored is the fact they are giving up over 105 points per game to the West this season in 15 games. Now, this could be that some West teams play faster, but the Hornets aren’t playing slow this season by any means, and they still have a top ten team in Offensive Efficiency this season at 102.9. On top of that, Denver has a worse Defensive Rating than every other team in the league with the exception of the Lakers, Kings, Bucks and Pelicans, so don’t expect the Hornets to have another bad night offensively.

With all this being said, the over looks like the NBA pick in this one. The Hornets are only 2-3 cashing the over on the second night of a back to back, but they have cashed the over in four of their last seven games, and both of these teams have had some issues stopping people recently.

 

The Sharp Pick
In their last ten games, the Hornets are giving up nearly 105 points per game, and if you look at their last six games, they are giving up an average of 109 points per game. The Nuggets haven’t been much better the entire season, but even recently, the Nuggets have been giving up more than their average. In their last ten games, Denver has given up over 102 points per game, and if you take away their really low scoring game against the Wolves four nights ago, they are also giving up 106 points per game in four of their last five.

The over is now 6-3 in the last nine road games for the Hornets, while the over is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six home games. On the year in their respective home/road positions tonight, these two teams combine to cash the over at 19-12-1. I could see a game where both teams get into the low 100s, so take the over and add it to your NBA picks this evening.