Take Nuggets +14 As The Sharp NBA Pick Tonight vs. Warriors

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, January 2, 2016 5:25 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 2, 2016 5:25 PM GMT

The Nuggets have lost seven of their last eight while the Warriors continue their advance in defense of their title. Let's analyze this matchup and cash in our NBA picks for tonight.

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NBA Pick: Nuggets +14.5
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

 

Denver Nuggets (12-21 SU, 14-17-2 ATS)
Once again the Nuggets disappointed all those who backed them in their NBA picks last time out when they fell 110-103 as six-point road dogs to the Trailblazers. Wil Barton, traded by the Blazers to the Nuggets last season, had a rousing homecoming as he knocked down 31 points to lead Denver in the losing effort. Injuries have plagued Denver this season but head coach Michael Malone reported that forward Danilo Gallinari (left ankle sprain) and center Jusuf Nurkic (left patellar tendon) may be in action against Golden State tonight.  Nurkic has yet to play this season while Gallinari has missed the last six. Seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft Emmanuel Mudiay is still approximately 10 days away from returning with a right ankle sprain.

The Nuggets have dropped seven of their last eight straight and covered the NBA odds in only two of those contests. Denver is now 12-21 on the season but remain just three games back from the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot currently occupied by the Utah Jazz. The team is currently ranked 22nd in points scored averaging 98.9 per game while their defense has been just about as disappointing allowing 103.8 PPG which places them 23rd in the league in that category. If there is one thing the Nuggets have done reasonably well this season it is clean the glass. Denver is averaging 44.2 rebounds per game which ranks them 11th amongst the 30 NBA teams. Kenneth Faried is leading the team in boards averaging 8.9 per game and is also the team leader in blocks.

 

Golden State Warriors (30-2 SU, 20-11-1 ATS)
The Warriors suffered only their second loss of the season on Wednesday night when they bowed to the Mavericks in Dallas 114-91 as 3½ point road favorites. However it should be noted that Golden State was without the services of the sublime Stephen Curry who has been ailing with a bruised lower left leg. Curry sat out his team's next game as well but the Warriors bounced back with an impressive 114-110 road win in Houston. Thus, Golden State dribbles out of the Lone Star State with a split and returns home tonight to welcome the Nuggets.

The verdict is still out as to whether Curry will be in uniform for tonight's game which is why the NBA odds makers have been cautious about hanging a line. The Warriors are 15-0 straight up and 9-6 ATS at home this season, averaging 112.8 points on 47.8 percent shooting when in their home court.

 

Betting Analysis
These two clubs have met twice this season and not surprisingly the Warriors have won both games handily. In their first matchup on November 6th it was Golden State cruising to a 119-104 victory and then a few weeks later flew to Denver to bounce the Nuggets yet again to the tune of 118-105. But it might surprise you to learn that Denver covered the number in their first game as 17 point road underdogs and narrowly missed covering in their second game as 12 ½ point home dogs.

I see this as a good spot for Denver - relatively speaking of course as it is always risky business to bet against an historically good team such as the Warriors - because if Curry does come back he will not be one-hundred percent regardless of what he tells the press. And in addition Harrison Barnes, who totaled 38 points on 14-of-22 shooting in those combined two wins over Denver, will not be in action due to an ankle sprain. Meanwhile it looks like Denver will be getting some of their walking wounded back in uniform and getting 14½ points to boot makes the Nuggets look like they are the sharp side here.

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